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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Diego Ferreira won · Decision R3

Elo1506

Elo1473

Billy Quarantillo editorial illustration

Diego FerreiravsBilly QuarantilloUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld · Saturday, August 8, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Diego Ferreira won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Diego Ferreira

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Diego Ferreira at -173 American odds · hypothetical only

+$58 profit

$158 total returned

Style matchupDiego Ferreira: Well-roundedvsBilly Quarantillo: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Billy Quarantillo is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Diego Ferreira has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Diego Ferreira has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Diego Ferreira has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Diego Ferreira

Red Corner

Billy Quarantillo

Blue Corner

-173

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+144

(41%)

1506

Elo

1473

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diego FerreiraL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Dec 21

KOvs Michael Johnson · May 23

KOvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 24

vs Grant Dawson · Jan 25

KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Sep 25

latest

Billy QuarantilloL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Dec 22

KOvs Edson Barboza · Apr 23

vs Damon Jackson · Aug 23

SUBvs Youssef Zalal · Mar 24

KOvs Cub Swanson · Dec 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diego FerreiraMetricBilly Quarantillo

4.70

Strikes / min

7.44

3.46

Strikes absorbed / min

5.83

55%

Strike defense

42%

0.82

TDs / 15 min

1.47

57%

Takedown defense

61%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.24evenly matched on net striking+1.61

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Diego Ferreira(10 fights)Billy Quarantillo(10 fights)

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diego FerreiraTargetBilly Quarantillo

By target zone

45% acc · 81%

Head

30% acc · 68%

74% acc · 17%

Body

52% acc · 22%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

70% acc · 10%

By position

101

46% acc · 87%

Distance

34% acc · 93%

89% acc · 7%

Clinch

60% acc · 4%

78% acc · 6%

Ground

50% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Diego Ferreira rounds

even

Billy Quarantillo rounds

Round 1Diego Ferreira edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns1

Control1:49

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Diego Ferreira edged it

Sig. strikes46

Takedowns2

Control0:27

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 3Diego Ferreira edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns1

Control0:31

29Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:30Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

116 / 236

Sig Strikes

73 / 208

48.7%

Sig Str %

33.7%

124 / 246

Total Strikes

113 / 249

4 / 9

TDs

1 / 3

62%

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

2:47

Ctrl Time

1:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Billy Quarantillo	12 / 45	19 / 52	0 / 1
1	Diego Ferreira	31 / 65	39 / 75	1 / 1
2	Billy Quarantillo	32 / 91	38 / 97	0 / 0
2	Diego Ferreira	46 / 97	46 / 97	2 / 3
3	Billy Quarantillo	29 / 72	56 / 100	1 / 2
3	Diego Ferreira	39 / 74	39 / 74	1 / 5

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Diego Ferreira

Odds

-173

Market-implied probability

Diego Ferreira 61%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Diego Ferreira (model pick · research)$158

Billy Quarantillo$244

61% market-implied · model 56% (research) · vufc_v7_0_20260718_090638

🔒 Pick locked Jul 19, 2026, 4:16 AM UTC · never rewritten

Diego Ferreira

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18

Billy Quarantillo

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights12