← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Cezar Ferreira won · SUB R1

Elo1374

Elo1432

Cezar FerreiravsThiago SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung · Saturday, August 3, 2013Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Cezar Ferreira won

SUB · Round 1 · 0:47

Style matchupCezar Ferreira: WrestlervsThiago Santos: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Cezar Ferreira wins(74.7%)

Actual result: Cezar Ferreira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cezar Ferreira at -460 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Thiago Santos is a KO finisher (79% of wins). Cezar Ferreira has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Cezar Ferreira has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Cezar Ferreira (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Cezar Ferreira

Red Corner

Thiago Santos

Blue Corner

-460

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+410

(20%)

1374

Elo

1432

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'2"

198.12 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cezar FerreiraL2 streak

oldest →

vs Elias Theodorou · Feb 17

vs Nate Marquardt · Nov 17

SUBvs Karl Roberson · May 18

vs Ian Heinisch · Nov 18

vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 19

latest

Thiago SantosL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Nov 20

vs Aleksandar Rakic · Mar 21

vs Johnny Walker · Oct 21

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 22

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Aug 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cezar FerreiraMetricThiago Santos

1.90

Strikes / min

3.72

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

2.57

53%

Strike defense

53%

2.69

TDs / 15 min

0.88

84%

Takedown defense

65%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54Δ 1.69 — meaningful gap+1.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cezar FerreiraThiago Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cezar Ferreira(10 fights)Thiago Santos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -57.9|Blue +57.9

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cezar FerreiraTargetThiago Santos

By target zone

75% acc · 100%

Head

0% acc

Body

0% acc

Leg

By position

60% acc · 100%

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cezar Ferreira rounds

even

Thiago Santos rounds

Round 1Cezar Ferreira edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:07

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 5

Sig Strikes

0 / 1

60%

Sig Str %

3 / 5

Total Strikes

0 / 1

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Thiago Santos	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0
1	Cezar Ferreira	3 / 5	3 / 5	0 / 0	1

Cezar Ferreira

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15

Thiago Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24