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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Cezar Ferreira won · U-DEC R3

Elo1374

Elo1378

Cezar FerreiravsSergio MoraesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2 · Saturday, June 23, 2012Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil

Official fight result

Cezar Ferreira won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Cezar Ferreira wins(52.3%)

Actual result: Cezar Ferreira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cezar Ferreira at -315 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sergio Moraes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Cezar Ferreira (53.5%).
Cezar Ferreira has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Cezar Ferreira

Red Corner

Sergio Moraes

Blue Corner

-315

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+258

(28%)

1374

Elo

1378

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

198.12 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cezar FerreiraL2 streak

oldest →

vs Elias Theodorou · Feb 17

vs Nate Marquardt · Nov 17

SUBvs Karl Roberson · May 18

vs Ian Heinisch · Nov 18

vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 19

latest

Sergio MoraesL3 streak

oldest →

vs Tim Means · Feb 18

SUBvs Ben Saunders · Sep 18

vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Mar 19

KOvs Warlley Alves · May 19

KOvs James Krause · Nov 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cezar FerreiraMetricSergio Moraes

1.90

Strikes / min

2.42

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.73

53%

Strike defense

59%

2.69

TDs / 15 min

1.20

84%

Takedown defense

75%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54evenly matched on net striking-1.31

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cezar Ferreira(10 fights)Sergio Moraes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.6|Blue +3.6

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cezar FerreiraTargetSergio Moraes

By target zone

34% acc · 64%

Head

42% acc · 66%

47% acc · 33%

Body

100% acc · 16%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 18%

By position

35% acc · 83%

Distance

52% acc · 84%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

50% acc · 16%

44% acc · 10%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cezar Ferreira rounds

even

Sergio Moraes rounds

Round 1Sergio Moraes edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Cezar Ferreira edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:25

Knockdowns1

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Cezar Ferreira edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:27

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 111

Sig Strikes

38 / 73

36.7%

Sig Str %

53%

46 / 124

Total Strikes

39 / 74

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:52

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sergio Moraes	14 / 28	14 / 28	0 / 1
1	Cezar Ferreira	12 / 30	14 / 32	0 / 0
2	Sergio Moraes	17 / 33	17 / 33	0 / 1
2	Cezar Ferreira	22 / 45	23 / 47	0 / 0
3	Sergio Moraes	7 / 12	8 / 13	0 / 0
3	Cezar Ferreira	8 / 36	9 / 45	0 / 0

Cezar Ferreira

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15

Sergio Moraes

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights13