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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Sam Alvey won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1374
Elo1431

Cezar FerreiravsSam AlveyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir · Sunday, February 22, 2015Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

Official fight result

Sam Alvey won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:34

Style matchupCezar Ferreira: WrestlervsSam Alvey: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Sam Alvey wins(50.5%)

Actual result: Sam Alvey wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sam Alvey at +280 American odds

+$280 profit

$380 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
  • Sam Alvey is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Cezar Ferreira has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Cezar Ferreira
Red Corner
VS
Sam Alvey
Blue Corner
-340
(77%)
Vegas Odds
+280
(26%)
1374
Elo
1431
41
Age
40
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
6'2"
198.12 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cezar FerreiraL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Elias Theodorou · Feb 17
W
vs Nate Marquardt · Nov 17
W
SUBvs Karl Roberson · May 18
L
vs Ian Heinisch · Nov 18
L
vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 19
latest
Sam AlveyL5 streak
oldest →
L
vs Ryan Spann · May 20
L
SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21
L
vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21
L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22
L
KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cezar FerreiraMetricSam Alvey
1.90
Strikes / min
3.28
2.44
Strikes absorbed / min
3.63
53%
Strike defense
52%
2.69
TDs / 15 min
0.06
84%
Takedown defense
82%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.54evenly matched on net striking-0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1549 vs 1500Strikes16.6 vs 44.0Takedowns1.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.20 vs 0.00Form0.5 vs 0.1
Cezar FerreiraSam Alvey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Cezar Ferreira(10 fights)Sam Alvey(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -56.2|Blue +56.2
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +132.0|Blue -132.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cezar FerreiraTargetSam Alvey

By target zone

6
26% acc · 46%
Head
4
50% acc · 100%
4
44% acc · 31%
Body
0
3
75% acc · 23%
Leg
0

By position

13
36% acc · 100%
Distance
2
40% acc · 50%
0
Clinch
0
0% acc
0
Ground
2
100% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Cezar Ferreira rounds
1
even
0
Sam Alvey rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
13 / 36
Sig Strikes
4 / 8
36%
Sig Str %
50%
13 / 36
Total Strikes
4 / 8
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:03

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Sam Alvey4 / 84 / 80 / 00
1Cezar Ferreira13 / 3613 / 360 / 00

Cezar Ferreira

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights15

Sam Alvey

StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights23