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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Cezar Ferreira won · SUB R1
Elo1374
Elo1429

Cezar FerreiravsKarl RobersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · Saturday, May 12, 2018Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Cezar Ferreira won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:45

Model Prediction: Cezar Ferreira wins(63.5%)

Actual result: Cezar Ferreira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cezar Ferreira at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Karl Roberson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Cezar Ferreira has 44pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Cezar Ferreira has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Cezar Ferreira
Red Corner
VS
Karl Roberson
Blue Corner
-150
(60%)
Vegas Odds
+130
(43%)
1374
Elo
1429
41
Age
35
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
6'1"
198.12 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cezar FerreiraL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Jack Hermansson · Nov 16
L
vs Elias Theodorou · Feb 17
W
vs Nate Marquardt · Nov 17
L
vs Ian Heinisch · Nov 18
L
vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 19
latest
Karl RobersonL4 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Roman Kopylov · Nov 19
L
SUBvs Marvin Vettori · Jun 20
L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Apr 21
L
KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Mar 22
L
KOvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Jul 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cezar FerreiraMetricKarl Roberson
1.90
Strikes / min
2.57
2.44
Strikes absorbed / min
2.42
53%
Strike defense
57%
2.69
TDs / 15 min
0.72
84%
Takedown defense
40%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.54evenly matched on net striking+0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1558 vs 1518Strikes18.9 vs 17.0Takedowns1.8 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.33 vs 2.00Form0.6 vs 1.0
Cezar FerreiraKarl Roberson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Cezar Ferreira(10 fights)Karl Roberson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -54.2|Blue +54.2
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cezar FerreiraTargetKarl Roberson

By target zone

4
80% acc · 80%
Head
3
60% acc · 75%
1
100% acc · 20%
Body
0
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 25%

By position

1
100% acc · 20%
Distance
1
33% acc · 25%
0
Clinch
2
100% acc · 50%
4
80% acc · 80%
Ground
1
100% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Cezar Ferreira rounds
0
even
0
Karl Roberson rounds
Round 1Cezar Ferreira edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns2
Control4:21
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
5 / 6
Sig Strikes
4 / 6
83%
Sig Str %
66%
14 / 16
Total Strikes
20 / 26
2 / 3
TDs
0 / 0
66%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
4:21
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Karl Roberson4 / 620 / 260 / 00
1Cezar Ferreira5 / 614 / 162 / 31

Cezar Ferreira

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights15

Karl Roberson

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights10