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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Cezar Ferreira won · SUB R2

Elo1374

Elo1480

Cezar FerreiravsJack HermanssonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · Saturday, November 19, 2016Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Cezar Ferreira won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:11

Style matchupCezar Ferreira: WrestlervsJack Hermansson: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Jack Hermansson wins(57.2%)

Actual result: Cezar Ferreira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jack Hermansson at -130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Cezar Ferreira (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Cezar Ferreira

Red Corner

Jack Hermansson

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1374

Elo

1480

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

198.12 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cezar FerreiraL2 streak

oldest →

vs Elias Theodorou · Feb 17

vs Nate Marquardt · Nov 17

SUBvs Karl Roberson · May 18

vs Ian Heinisch · Nov 18

vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 19

latest

Jack HermanssonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Chris Curtis · Jul 22

KOvs Roman Dolidze · Dec 22

vs Joe Pyfer · Feb 24

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Jun 25

KOvs Myktybek Orolbai · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cezar FerreiraMetricJack Hermansson

1.90

Strikes / min

5.15

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.72

53%

Strike defense

56%

2.69

TDs / 15 min

1.48

84%

Takedown defense

80%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54Δ 1.97 — meaningful gap+1.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cezar FerreiraJack Hermansson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cezar Ferreira(10 fights)Jack Hermansson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -106.1|Blue +106.1

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +57.0|Blue -57.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cezar FerreiraTargetJack Hermansson

By target zone

15% acc · 30%

Head

14% acc · 21%

83% acc · 50%

Body

33% acc · 21%

50% acc · 20%

Leg

42% acc · 57%

By position

33% acc · 100%

Distance

29% acc · 100%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cezar Ferreira rounds

even

Jack Hermansson rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Cezar Ferreira edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control1:21

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 30

Sig Strikes

14 / 49

40%

Sig Str %

30%

10 / 30

Total Strikes

14 / 49

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:21

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jack Hermansson	9 / 35	9 / 35	0 / 0	0
1	Cezar Ferreira	8 / 26	8 / 26	0 / 0	0
2	Jack Hermansson	5 / 14	5 / 14	0 / 0	0
2	Cezar Ferreira	2 / 4	2 / 4	1 / 1	1

Cezar Ferreira

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15

Jack Hermansson

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19