Middleweight

3 Rounds

Ian Heinisch won · U-DEC R3

Elo1374

Elo1405

Cezar FerreiravsIan HeinischUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio · Saturday, November 17, 2018Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina

Official fight result

Ian Heinisch won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCezar Ferreira: WrestlervsIan Heinisch: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Cezar Ferreira wins(75.4%)

Actual result: Ian Heinisch wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cezar Ferreira at -185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cezar Ferreira has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Cezar Ferreira (53.5%).
Cezar Ferreira has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Cezar Ferreira

Red Corner

Ian Heinisch

Blue Corner

-185

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1374

Elo

1405

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

198.12 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cezar Ferreira

oldest →

SUBvs Jack Hermansson · Nov 16

vs Elias Theodorou · Feb 17

vs Nate Marquardt · Nov 17

SUBvs Karl Roberson · May 18

vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 19

latest

Ian HeinischL2 streak

oldest →

vs Derek Brunson · Aug 19

vs Omari Akhmedov · Dec 19

KOvs Gerald Meerschaert · Jun 20

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Feb 21

KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Jul 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cezar FerreiraMetricIan Heinisch

1.90

Strikes / min

3.25

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

2.98

53%

Strike defense

59%

2.69

TDs / 15 min

1.02

84%

Takedown defense

59%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54evenly matched on net striking+0.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cezar FerreiraIan Heinisch

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cezar Ferreira(10 fights)Ian Heinisch(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -30.3|Blue +30.3

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -48.8|Blue +48.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cezar FerreiraTargetIan Heinisch

By target zone

44% acc · 65%

Head

51% acc · 69%

33% acc · 12%

Body

100% acc · 18%

86% acc · 23%

Leg

64% acc · 13%

By position

47% acc · 85%

Distance

51% acc · 55%

50% acc · 15%

Clinch

67% acc · 25%

Ground

73% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cezar Ferreira rounds

even

Ian Heinisch rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control2:25

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns3

Control1:28

Knockdowns0

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Ian Heinisch edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control1:27

29Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:26Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 55

Sig Strikes

55 / 95

51.7%

Sig Str %

56.7%

38 / 68

Total Strikes

90 / 133

5 / 11

TDs

1 / 7

44.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:20

Ctrl Time

1:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ian Heinisch	13 / 21	20 / 29	0 / 0	2
1	Cezar Ferreira	6 / 9	7 / 10	1 / 4	0
2	Ian Heinisch	13 / 27	13 / 27	0 / 1	0
2	Cezar Ferreira	9 / 18	18 / 27	3 / 4	0
3	Ian Heinisch	29 / 47	57 / 77	1 / 6	0
3	Cezar Ferreira	11 / 28	13 / 31	1 / 3	0

Cezar Ferreira

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15

Ian Heinisch

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7