Middleweight

3 Rounds

Cezar Ferreira won · S-DEC R3

Elo1374

Elo1490

Cezar FerreiravsDaniel SarafianUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · Saturday, November 9, 2013Goiania, Goias, Brazil

Official fight result

Cezar Ferreira won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Cezar Ferreira wins(55.1%)

Actual result: Cezar Ferreira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cezar Ferreira at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Sarafian is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Cezar Ferreira has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Cezar Ferreira has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Cezar Ferreira (53.5%).
Cezar Ferreira has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Cezar Ferreira

Red Corner

Daniel Sarafian

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1374

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'9"

198.12 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cezar FerreiraL2 streak

oldest →

vs Elias Theodorou · Feb 17

vs Nate Marquardt · Nov 17

SUBvs Karl Roberson · May 18

vs Ian Heinisch · Nov 18

vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 19

latest

Daniel Sarafian

oldest →

vs CB Dollaway · Jan 13

SUBvs Eddie Mendez · Jun 13

SUBvs Kiichi Kunimoto · Jun 14

KOvs Antonio Dos Santos · Dec 14

KOvs Oluwale Bamgbose · Feb 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cezar FerreiraMetricDaniel Sarafian

1.90

Strikes / min

2.23

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.10

53%

Strike defense

58%

2.69

TDs / 15 min

0.36

84%

Takedown defense

53%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54evenly matched on net striking-0.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cezar FerreiraDaniel Sarafian

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cezar Ferreira(10 fights)Daniel Sarafian(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -116.1|Blue +116.1

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cezar FerreiraTargetDaniel Sarafian

By target zone

26% acc · 67%

Head

34% acc · 52%

43% acc · 20%

Body

67% acc · 10%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

89% acc · 38%

By position

32% acc · 93%

Distance

49% acc · 90%

33% acc · 7%

Clinch

40% acc · 10%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cezar Ferreira rounds

even

Daniel Sarafian rounds

Round 1Cezar Ferreira edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control1:21

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:20Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control3:13

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 3Cezar Ferreira edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns2

Control3:51

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 47

Sig Strikes

21 / 44

30%

Sig Str %

46.3%

56 / 99

Total Strikes

31 / 54

3 / 4

TDs

0 / 5

66.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

8:25

Ctrl Time

1:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Daniel Sarafian	8 / 20	9 / 21	0 / 3
1	Cezar Ferreira	10 / 28	13 / 32	0 / 1
2	Daniel Sarafian	10 / 15	16 / 21	0 / 1
2	Cezar Ferreira	2 / 11	11 / 21	1 / 1
3	Daniel Sarafian	3 / 9	6 / 12	0 / 1
3	Cezar Ferreira	3 / 8	32 / 46	2 / 2

Cezar Ferreira

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15

Daniel Sarafian

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6