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Middleweight
3 Rounds
CB Dollaway won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1374
Elo1491
CB Dollaway

Cezar FerreiravsCB DollawayUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Henderson 2 · Sunday, March 23, 2014Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil

Official fight result

CB Dollaway won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:39

Style matchupCezar Ferreira: WrestlervsCB Dollaway: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: CB Dollaway wins(56.8%)

Actual result: CB Dollaway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

CB Dollaway at +340 American odds

+$340 profit

$440 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Cezar Ferreira has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Cezar Ferreira (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Cezar Ferreira
Red Corner
VS
CB Dollaway
Blue Corner
-380
(79%)
Vegas Odds
+340
(23%)
1374
Elo
1491
41
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'2"
198.12 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cezar FerreiraL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Elias Theodorou · Feb 17
W
vs Nate Marquardt · Nov 17
W
SUBvs Karl Roberson · May 18
L
vs Ian Heinisch · Nov 18
L
vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 19
latest
CB Dollaway
oldest →
L
vs Michael Bisping · Apr 15
L
KOvs Nate Marquardt · Dec 15
W
vs Ed Herman · Jul 17
W
vs Hector Lombard · Mar 18
L
KOvs Khalid Murtazaliev · Sep 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cezar FerreiraMetricCB Dollaway
1.90
Strikes / min
2.65
2.44
Strikes absorbed / min
2.58
53%
Strike defense
54%
2.69
TDs / 15 min
3.55
84%
Takedown defense
62%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.54evenly matched on net striking+0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1553 vs 1502Strikes20.0 vs 20.6Takedowns1.0 vs 2.2Sub Atts0.33 vs 0.75Form1.0 vs -0.2
Cezar FerreiraCB Dollaway

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Cezar Ferreira(10 fights)CB Dollaway(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -116.9|Blue +116.9
Recent Form
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Striker Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Layoff
Red -21.0|Blue +21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cezar FerreiraTargetCB Dollaway

By target zone

3
38% acc · 100%
Head
12
75% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

3
38% acc · 100%
Distance
5
71% acc · 42%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
7
78% acc · 58%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Cezar Ferreira rounds
0
even
1
CB Dollaway rounds
Round 1CB Dollaway edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:08Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
3 / 8
Sig Strikes
12 / 16
37%
Sig Str %
75%
3 / 8
Total Strikes
13 / 17
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:08

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1CB Dollaway12 / 1613 / 170 / 00
1Cezar Ferreira3 / 83 / 80 / 00

Cezar Ferreira

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights15

CB Dollaway

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights14