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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Cezar Ferreira won · U-DEC R3
Elo1374
Elo1485
Anthony Smith

Cezar FerreiravsAnthony SmithUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale · Friday, July 8, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Cezar Ferreira won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Anthony Smith wins(50.4%)

Actual result: Cezar Ferreira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Smith at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Anthony Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Cezar Ferreira has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Cezar Ferreira (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Cezar Ferreira
Red Corner
VS
Anthony Smith
Blue Corner
-115
(53%)
Vegas Odds
-105
(51%)
1374
Elo
1485
41
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'4"
198.12 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cezar FerreiraL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Elias Theodorou · Feb 17
W
vs Nate Marquardt · Nov 17
W
SUBvs Karl Roberson · May 18
L
vs Ian Heinisch · Nov 18
L
vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 19
latest
Anthony SmithL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Dec 23
W
SUBvs Vitor Petrino · May 24
L
vs Roman Dolidze · Jun 24
L
KOvs Dominick Reyes · Dec 24
L
KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Apr 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cezar FerreiraMetricAnthony Smith
1.90
Strikes / min
3.19
2.44
Strikes absorbed / min
5.04
53%
Strike defense
44%
2.69
TDs / 15 min
0.44
84%
Takedown defense
50%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.54Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap-1.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1529 vs 1501Strikes16.1 vs 31.0Takedowns1.1 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.13 vs 0.00Form0.1 vs 0.9
Cezar FerreiraAnthony Smith

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Cezar Ferreira(10 fights)Anthony Smith(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -110.7|Blue +110.7
Recent Form
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -55.0|Blue +55.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cezar FerreiraTargetAnthony Smith

By target zone

17
49% acc · 57%
Head
22
49% acc · 67%
6
75% acc · 20%
Body
6
46% acc · 18%
7
88% acc · 23%
Leg
5
100% acc · 15%

By position

23
56% acc · 77%
Distance
26
48% acc · 79%
1
100% acc · 3%
Clinch
6
86% acc · 18%
6
67% acc · 20%
Ground
1
50% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Cezar Ferreira rounds
0
even
0
Anthony Smith rounds
Round 1Cezar Ferreira edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns2
Control2:33
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Cezar Ferreira edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns2
Control1:50
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Round 3Cezar Ferreira edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns2
Control4:16
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
30 / 51
Sig Strikes
33 / 63
58%
Sig Str %
54.7%
120 / 148
Total Strikes
41 / 71
6 / 6
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
8:39
Ctrl Time
0:03

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Anthony Smith13 / 2413 / 240 / 00
1Cezar Ferreira11 / 1818 / 252 / 20
2Anthony Smith15 / 3116 / 320 / 00
2Cezar Ferreira14 / 2432 / 422 / 20
3Anthony Smith5 / 812 / 150 / 01
3Cezar Ferreira5 / 970 / 812 / 20

Cezar Ferreira

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights15

Anthony Smith

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights25