← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Cezar Ferreira won · U-DEC R3

Elo1374

Elo1355

Cezar FerreiravsAndrew CraigUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Marquardt · Saturday, June 28, 2014San Antonio, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Cezar Ferreira won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Andrew Craig wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Cezar Ferreira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andrew Craig at +248 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Cezar Ferreira (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Cezar Ferreira

Red Corner

Andrew Craig

Blue Corner

-270

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+248

(29%)

1374

Elo

1355

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

198.12 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cezar FerreiraL2 streak

oldest →

vs Elias Theodorou · Feb 17

vs Nate Marquardt · Nov 17

SUBvs Karl Roberson · May 18

vs Ian Heinisch · Nov 18

vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 19

latest

Andrew CraigL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Natal · Jul 12

vs Ronny Markes · Jan 13

vs Chris Leben · Jul 13

SUBvs Luke Barnatt · Oct 13

KOvs Lyman Good · Jul 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cezar FerreiraMetricAndrew Craig

1.90

Strikes / min

2.39

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.01

53%

Strike defense

50%

2.69

TDs / 15 min

0.53

84%

Takedown defense

72%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54evenly matched on net striking-0.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cezar FerreiraAndrew Craig

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cezar Ferreira(10 fights)Andrew Craig(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +19.4|Blue -19.4

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -148.0|Blue +148.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cezar FerreiraTargetAndrew Craig

By target zone

15% acc · 30%

Head

20% acc · 75%

58% acc · 55%

Body

67% acc · 13%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

40% acc · 13%

By position

28% acc · 80%

Distance

21% acc · 81%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 15%

Ground

100% acc · 19%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cezar Ferreira rounds

even

Andrew Craig rounds

Round 1Cezar Ferreira edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control0:47

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 2Cezar Ferreira edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:55

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Andrew Craig edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control3:45

Knockdowns0

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 61

Sig Strikes

16 / 67

32%

Sig Str %

23.3%

31 / 72

Total Strikes

56 / 114

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 1

66.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:27

Ctrl Time

0:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Andrew Craig	3 / 18	3 / 18	0 / 0
1	Cezar Ferreira	11 / 23	11 / 23	1 / 1
2	Andrew Craig	4 / 27	4 / 27	0 / 1
2	Cezar Ferreira	6 / 27	9 / 30	0 / 2
3	Andrew Craig	9 / 22	49 / 69	0 / 0
3	Cezar Ferreira	3 / 11	11 / 19	1 / 1

Cezar Ferreira

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15

Andrew Craig

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights7