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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Polo Reyes won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1358
Cesar Arzamendia
Elo1491

Cesar ArzamendiavsPolo ReyesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gastelum · Saturday, November 21, 2015Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, Mexico

Official fight result

Polo Reyes won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:42

Model Prediction: Polo Reyes wins(52.3%)

Actual result: Polo Reyes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Polo Reyes at +165 American odds

+$165 profit

$265 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Polo Reyes is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Cesar Arzamendia has lost 100% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Cesar Arzamendia
Red Corner
VS
Polo Reyes
Blue Corner
-190
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+165
(38%)
1358
Elo
1491
35
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'11"
180.34 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cesar Arzamendia
oldest →
L
KOvs Damien Brown · Jul 16
latest
Polo Reyes
oldest →
W
KOvs Dong Hyun Ma · Jun 16
W
DECvs Jason Novelli · Nov 16
L
KOvs James Vick · May 17
W
KOvs Matt Frevola · Jan 18
L
KOvs Damir Hadzovic · Feb 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cesar ArzamendiaMetricPolo Reyes
5.37
Strikes / min
—
5.20
Strikes absorbed / min
—
56%
Strike defense
—
7.32
TDs / 15 min
—
0%
Takedown defense
—
2.40
Sub atts / 15 min
—
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Cesar Arzamendia(2 fights)Polo Reyes(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -133.9|Blue +133.9
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Cesar Arzamendia

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach—
Fights2

Polo Reyes

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights2