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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Damien Brown won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1358
Cesar Arzamendia
Elo1364
Damien Brown

Cesar ArzamendiavsDamien BrownUFC Prediction Result

UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · Saturday, July 30, 2016Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Damien Brown won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:27

Model Prediction: Damien Brown wins(63.2%)

Actual result: Damien Brown wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Damien Brown at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Damien Brown enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Damien Brown is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Cesar Arzamendia has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Damien Brown has 53pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Cesar Arzamendia
Red Corner
VS
Damien Brown
Blue Corner
-105
(51%)
Vegas Odds
-115
(53%)
1358
Elo
1364
35
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cesar Arzamendia
oldest →
L
KOvs Polo Reyes · Nov 15
latest
Damien BrownL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Alan Patrick · Mar 16
W
vs Jon Tuck · Nov 16
L
KOvs Vinc Pichel · Jun 17
L
vs Frank Camacho · Nov 17
L
vs Dong Hyun Ma · Feb 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cesar ArzamendiaMetricDamien Brown
5.37
Strikes / min
3.66
5.20
Strikes absorbed / min
4.86
56%
Strike defense
50%
7.32
TDs / 15 min
0.68
0%
Takedown defense
53%
2.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.17Δ 1.37 — meaningful gap-1.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1482 vs 1483Strikes16.0 vs 15.0Takedowns3.0 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.00Form-1.0 vs -1.0
Cesar ArzamendiaDamien Brown

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Cesar Arzamendia(2 fights)Damien Brown(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -6.3|Blue +6.3
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +119.0|Blue -119.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cesar ArzamendiaTargetDamien Brown

By target zone

11
52% acc · 65%
Head
20
50% acc · 91%
5
100% acc · 29%
Body
1
100% acc · 5%
1
100% acc · 6%
Leg
1
100% acc · 5%

By position

14
61% acc · 82%
Distance
8
42% acc · 36%
3
75% acc · 18%
Clinch
2
50% acc · 9%
0
Ground
12
63% acc · 55%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Cesar Arzamendia rounds
0
even
1
Damien Brown rounds
Round 1Damien Brown edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:03
Knockdowns0
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:50Control
2Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
2
17 / 27
Sig Strikes
22 / 42
62%
Sig Str %
52%
17 / 27
Total Strikes
25 / 46
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:03
Ctrl Time
0:50

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Damien Brown22 / 4225 / 460 / 00
1Cesar Arzamendia17 / 2717 / 270 / 01

Cesar Arzamendia

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach—
Fights2

Damien Brown

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights6