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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Roman Kopylov won · S-DEC R3

Elo1487

Elo1520

Cesar AlmeidavsRoman KopylovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Saturday, June 1, 2024Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Roman Kopylov won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCesar Almeida: StrikervsRoman Kopylov: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Roman Kopylov wins(56.8%)

Actual result: Roman Kopylov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Roman Kopylov has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Roman Kopylov (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Cesar Almeida

Red Corner

Roman Kopylov

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1487

Elo

1520

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cesar AlmeidaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dylan Budka · Apr 24

vs Ihor Potieria · Oct 24

KOvs Abdul Razak Alhassan · Jan 25

vs Cezary Oleksiejczuk · Dec 25

KOvs Damian Pinas · Jul 26

latest

Roman Kopylov

oldest →

SUBvs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 24

KOvs Chris Curtis · Jan 25

vs Paulo Costa · Jul 25

vs Gregory Rodrigues · Nov 25

DECvs Marco Tulio · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cesar AlmeidaMetricRoman Kopylov

3.46

Strikes / min

4.54

2.03

Strikes absorbed / min

5.08

46%

Strike defense

53%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.12

52%

Takedown defense

88%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.43Δ 1.97 — meaningful gap-0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cesar AlmeidaRoman Kopylov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cesar Almeida(6 fights)Roman Kopylov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -33.2|Blue +33.2

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cesar AlmeidaTargetRoman Kopylov

By target zone

35% acc · 31%

Head

54% acc · 83%

80% acc · 41%

Body

83% acc · 12%

70% acc · 28%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

53% acc · 88%

Distance

52% acc · 78%

100% acc · 10%

Clinch

50% acc · 2%

Ground

90% acc · 22%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cesar Almeida rounds

even

Roman Kopylov rounds

Round 1Roman Kopylov edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

18Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:01Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Cesar Almeida edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:58Control

Round 3Roman Kopylov edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:40Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

58 / 105

Sig Strikes

41 / 71

54.7%

Sig Str %

57%

114 / 162

Total Strikes

74 / 114

0 / 0

TDs

5 / 9

—

TD %

55%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

8:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Roman Kopylov	18 / 31	23 / 36	2 / 3
1	Cesar Almeida	23 / 42	28 / 47	0 / 0
2	Roman Kopylov	9 / 19	17 / 31	1 / 3
2	Cesar Almeida	20 / 36	52 / 69	0 / 0
3	Roman Kopylov	14 / 21	34 / 47	2 / 3
3	Cesar Almeida	15 / 27	34 / 46	0 / 0

Cesar Almeida

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6

Roman Kopylov

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12