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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Cesar Almeida won · U-DEC R3
Elo1487
Cesar Almeida editorial illustration
Elo1479
Ihor Potieria

Cesar AlmeidavsIhor PotieriaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Saturday, October 5, 2024Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Cesar Almeida won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCesar Almeida: StrikervsIhor Potieria: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Cesar Almeida wins(59.9%)

Actual result: Cesar Almeida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cesar Almeida at -500 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Cesar Almeida is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Ihor Potieria has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Ihor Potieria (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Cesar Almeida
Red Corner
VS
Ihor Potieria
Blue Corner
-500
(83%)
Vegas Odds
+380
(21%)
1487
Elo
1479
38
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
6'3"
187.96 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cesar AlmeidaL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Dylan Budka · Apr 24
L
vs Roman Kopylov · Jun 24
W
KOvs Abdul Razak Alhassan · Jan 25
L
vs Cezary Oleksiejczuk · Dec 25
L
KOvs Damian Pinas · Jul 26
latest
Ihor PotieriaL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Carlos Ulberg · May 23
L
KOvs Rodolfo Bellato · Dec 23
W
vs Robert Bryczek · Feb 24
L
SUBvs Michel Pereira · May 24
L
KOvs Marco Tulio · Jan 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cesar AlmeidaMetricIhor Potieria
3.46
Strikes / min
4.44
2.03
Strikes absorbed / min
4.96
46%
Strike defense
50%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.73
52%
Takedown defense
66%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.43Δ 1.95 — meaningful gap-0.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1480Strikes4.1 vs 4.6Takedowns0.0 vs 0.8Sub Atts0.30 vs 0.00Form-0.1 vs -0.3
Cesar AlmeidaIhor Potieria

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601480150015201540← oldermost recent →
Cesar Almeida(6 fights)Ihor Potieria(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +7.3|Blue -7.3
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -28.0|Blue +28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cesar AlmeidaTargetIhor Potieria

By target zone

32
46% acc · 56%
Head
22
34% acc · 50%
14
50% acc · 25%
Body
9
75% acc · 20%
11
69% acc · 19%
Leg
13
100% acc · 30%

By position

41
46% acc · 72%
Distance
42
49% acc · 95%
1
100% acc · 2%
Clinch
1
33% acc · 2%
15
68% acc · 26%
Ground
1
100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Cesar Almeida rounds
0
even
1
Ihor Potieria rounds
Round 1Cesar Almeida edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:00
16Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:58Control
Round 2Cesar Almeida edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control2:13
10Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:17Control
Round 3Ihor Potieria edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:02
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:17Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
57 / 113
Sig Strikes
44 / 89
50%
Sig Str %
51%
78 / 137
Total Strikes
57 / 102
0 / 2
TDs
3 / 8
0%
TD %
30.3%
1
Sub Att
0
1
Rev
0
2:15
Ctrl Time
3:32

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ihor Potieria16 / 3217 / 331 / 40
1Cesar Almeida23 / 4124 / 420 / 10
2Ihor Potieria10 / 1713 / 202 / 30
2Cesar Almeida22 / 3637 / 540 / 01
3Ihor Potieria18 / 4027 / 490 / 10
3Cesar Almeida12 / 3617 / 410 / 10

Cesar Almeida

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights6

Ihor Potieria

StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights8