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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Cezary Oleksiejczuk won · U-DEC R3

Elo1487

Elo1517

Cesar AlmeidavsCezary OleksiejczukUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · Saturday, December 13, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Cezary Oleksiejczuk won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCesar Almeida: StrikervsCezary Oleksiejczuk: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Cezary Oleksiejczuk wins(67.3%)

Actual result: Cezary Oleksiejczuk wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cezary Oleksiejczuk at -215 American odds

+$47 profit

$147 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cezary Oleksiejczuk has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Cezary Oleksiejczuk (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Cesar Almeida

Red Corner

Cezary Oleksiejczuk

Blue Corner

+180

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-215

(68%)

1487

Elo

1517

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'3"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cesar Almeida

oldest →

KOvs Dylan Budka · Apr 24

vs Roman Kopylov · Jun 24

vs Ihor Potieria · Oct 24

KOvs Abdul Razak Alhassan · Jan 25

KOvs Damian Pinas · Jul 26

latest

Cezary OleksiejczukNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cesar AlmeidaMetricCezary Oleksiejczuk

3.46

Strikes / min

1.99

2.03

Strikes absorbed / min

0.77

46%

Strike defense

47%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

5.77

52%

Takedown defense

100%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.43evenly matched on net striking+1.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cesar AlmeidaCezary Oleksiejczuk

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cesar Almeida(6 fights)Cezary Oleksiejczuk(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -30.0|Blue +30.0

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cesar AlmeidaTargetCezary Oleksiejczuk

By target zone

29% acc · 17%

Head

69% acc · 64%

78% acc · 58%

Body

83% acc · 36%

75% acc · 25%

Leg

By position

71% acc · 100%

Distance

67% acc · 71%

Clinch

100% acc · 7%

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 21%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cesar Almeida rounds

even

Cezary Oleksiejczuk rounds

Round 1Cezary Oleksiejczuk edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:39Control

Round 2Cezary Oleksiejczuk edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:29

6Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:15Control

Round 3Cezary Oleksiejczuk edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

3Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

4:21Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 20

Sig Strikes

14 / 19

65.3%

Sig Str %

81%

25 / 37

Total Strikes

113 / 126

0 / 0

TDs

6 / 7

—

TD %

91.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:29

Ctrl Time

11:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Cezary Oleksiejczuk	5 / 6	33 / 35	1 / 1
1	Cesar Almeida	4 / 5	6 / 9	0 / 0
2	Cezary Oleksiejczuk	6 / 10	32 / 39	2 / 2
2	Cesar Almeida	6 / 12	10 / 18	0 / 0
3	Cezary Oleksiejczuk	3 / 3	48 / 52	3 / 4
3	Cesar Almeida	2 / 3	9 / 10	0 / 0

Cesar Almeida

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6

Cezary Oleksiejczuk

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights1