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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Cesar Almeida won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1487
Cesar Almeida editorial illustration
Elo1491
Abdul Razak Alhassan

Cesar AlmeidavsAbdul Razak AlhassanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Saturday, January 11, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Cesar Almeida won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:16

Model Prediction: Cesar Almeida wins(69.1%)

Actual result: Cesar Almeida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cesar Almeida at -260 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Cesar Almeida
Red Corner
VS
Abdul Razak Alhassan
Blue Corner
-260
(72%)
Vegas Odds
+215
(32%)
1487
Elo
1491
38
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'10"
187.96 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cesar AlmeidaL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Dylan Budka · Apr 24
L
vs Roman Kopylov · Jun 24
W
vs Ihor Potieria · Oct 24
L
vs Cezary Oleksiejczuk · Dec 25
L
KOvs Damian Pinas · Jul 26
latest
Abdul Razak Alhassan
oldest →
L
vs Jacob Malkoun · Apr 21
W
KOvs Alessio Di Chirico · Aug 21
L
vs Joaquin Buckley · Feb 22
W
KOvs Claudio Ribeiro · Jan 23
L
SUBvs Joe Pyfer · Oct 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cesar AlmeidaMetricAbdul Razak Alhassan
3.46
Strikes / min
3.64
2.03
Strikes absorbed / min
4.01
46%
Strike defense
54%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.84
52%
Takedown defense
51%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.43Δ 1.80 — meaningful gap-0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1518 vs 1494Strikes3.5 vs 3.6Takedowns0.0 vs 0.8Sub Atts0.20 vs 0.20Form0.4 vs -0.3
Cesar AlmeidaAbdul Razak Alhassan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701488150515231540← oldermost recent →
Cesar Almeida(6 fights)Abdul Razak Alhassan(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -4.4|Blue +4.4
Recent Form
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red -364.0|Blue +364.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cesar AlmeidaTargetAbdul Razak Alhassan

By target zone

3
33% acc · 15%
Head
13
45% acc · 76%
9
82% acc · 45%
Body
4
100% acc · 24%
8
89% acc · 40%
Leg
0

By position

16
64% acc · 80%
Distance
9
43% acc · 53%
4
100% acc · 20%
Clinch
4
80% acc · 24%
0
Ground
4
57% acc · 24%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Cesar Almeida rounds
1
even
0
Abdul Razak Alhassan rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:03
Knockdowns1
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:31Control
1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
1
20 / 29
Sig Strikes
17 / 33
68%
Sig Str %
51%
21 / 30
Total Strikes
19 / 35
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 2
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:03
Ctrl Time
1:31

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Abdul Razak Alhassan17 / 3319 / 350 / 20
1Cesar Almeida20 / 2921 / 300 / 00

Cesar Almeida

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights6

Abdul Razak Alhassan

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights13