Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stevie Ray has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Stevie Ray (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Stevie Ray
oldest →L
KOvs Paul Felder · Jul 17L
vs Kajan Johnson · Mar 18W
vs Jessin Ayari · Oct 18L
KOvs Leonardo Santos · Jun 19W
vs Michael Johnson · Oct 19 Leonardo Mafra
oldest →L
KOvs Thiago Perpetuo · Jun 12L
SUBvs Rick Story · Jul 14W
vs Cain Carrizosa · Mar 15 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Stevie RayMetricLeonardo Mafra
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.80evenly matched on net striking+0.17
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Stevie RayLeonardo Mafra
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Stevie Ray(10 fights)Leonardo Mafra(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +1.5|Blue -1.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -21.0|Blue +21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Stevie RayTargetLeonardo Mafra
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Stevie Ray edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns1
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
