Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Allan Nascimento threatens submissions; Jafel Filho has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jafel Filho
oldest →L
SUBvs Muhammad Mokaev · Mar 23W
SUBvs Daniel Barez · Jul 23W
SUBvs Ode Osbourne · Mar 24W
SUBvs Clayton Carpenter · Oct 25L
DECvs Cody Durden · Apr 26 Allan Nascimento
oldest →L
vs Tagir Ulanbekov · Oct 21W
SUBvs Carlos Hernandez · Jan 23W
SUBvs Cody Durden · Nov 25L
DECvs Mitch Raposo · Jun 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jafel FilhoMetricAllan Nascimento
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.02evenly matched on net striking+0.53
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Jafel FilhoAllan Nascimento
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jafel Filho(6 fights)Allan Nascimento(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -20.2|Blue +20.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -427.0|Blue +427.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Jafel FilhoTargetAllan Nascimento
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Jafel Filho edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns2
Control4:07
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
Round 2Allan Nascimento edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns2
Control1:11
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
3:35Control
Round 3Allan Nascimento edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control1:02
2Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:24Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
