← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Nursulton Ruziboev won · U-DEC R3

Elo1486

Elo1544

Dustin StoltzfusvsNursulton RuziboevUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · Saturday, May 17, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Nursulton Ruziboev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Nursulton Ruziboev wins(55.8%)

Actual result: Nursulton Ruziboev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nursulton Ruziboev at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Stoltzfus

Red Corner

Nursulton Ruziboev

Blue Corner

+198

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-240

(71%)

1486

Elo

1544

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'5"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin Stoltzfus

oldest →

KOvs Abus Magomedov · Sep 22

SUBvs Punahele Soriano · Dec 23

KOvs Brunno Ferreira · Jun 24

KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · Nov 24

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Sep 25

latest

Nursulton RuziboevW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Brunno Ferreira · Jul 23

KOvs Sedriques Dumas · Mar 24

vs Joaquin Buckley · May 24

KOvs Eric McConico · Feb 25

SUBvs Andrey Pulyaev · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin StoltzfusMetricNursulton Ruziboev

3.30

Strikes / min

2.59

3.23

Strikes absorbed / min

2.89

47%

Strike defense

48%

2.08

TDs / 15 min

0.75

46%

Takedown defense

33%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.07evenly matched on net striking-0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dustin StoltzfusNursulton Ruziboev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Stoltzfus(10 fights)Nursulton Ruziboev(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -58.3|Blue +58.3

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +112.0|Blue -112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin StoltzfusTargetNursulton Ruziboev

By target zone

26% acc · 24%

Head

45% acc · 69%

67% acc · 19%

Body

73% acc · 23%

100% acc · 57%

Leg

75% acc · 9%

By position

56% acc · 90%

Distance

46% acc · 69%

50% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

67% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Stoltzfus rounds

even

Nursulton Ruziboev rounds

Round 1Nursulton Ruziboev edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control1:14

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:24Control

Round 2Nursulton Ruziboev edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control2:13

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:55Control

Round 3Dustin Stoltzfus edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control1:44

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 37

Sig Strikes

35 / 68

56.7%

Sig Str %

51.7%

41 / 62

Total Strikes

53 / 94

2 / 5

TDs

1 / 2

33.3%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

5:11

Ctrl Time

3:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nursulton Ruziboev	13 / 27	21 / 36	1 / 1	0
1	Dustin Stoltzfus	5 / 13	10 / 18	0 / 1	1
2	Nursulton Ruziboev	11 / 19	21 / 35	0 / 0	0
2	Dustin Stoltzfus	2 / 3	14 / 18	1 / 2	0
3	Nursulton Ruziboev	11 / 22	11 / 23	0 / 1	0
3	Dustin Stoltzfus	14 / 21	17 / 26	1 / 2	1

Dustin Stoltzfus

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10

Nursulton Ruziboev

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights7