Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rogerio Nogueira is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Ryan Bader has lost 60% of fights by KO.
- Ryan Bader has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Ryan Bader has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rogerio Nogueira (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rogerio NogueiraL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 16L
KOvs Ryan Bader · Nov 16L
KOvs Ryan Spann · May 19L
vs Mauricio Rua · Jul 20 Ryan BaderW2 streak
oldest →W
vs Rashad Evans · Oct 15L
KOvs Anthony Johnson · Jan 16W
KOvs Ilir Latifi · Sep 16W
KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · Nov 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rogerio NogueiraMetricRyan Bader
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.09Δ 1.34 — meaningful gap+1.43
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Rogerio NogueiraRyan Bader
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rogerio Nogueira(10 fights)Ryan Bader(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -103.9|Blue +103.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -49.0|Blue +49.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Rogerio NogueiraTargetRyan Bader
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Ryan Bader edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
15Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:59Control
Round 2Ryan Bader edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:38Control
Round 3Ryan Bader edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:06
17Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:05Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
