Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Danny Castillo enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Tony Ferguson has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tony FergusonL5 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22L
SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22L
SUBvs King Green · Jul 23L
vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24 Danny CastilloL3 streak
oldest →L
vs Edson Barboza · Dec 13W
KOvs Charlie Brenneman · Apr 14L
KOvs Paul Felder · Jan 15 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tony FergusonMetricDanny Castillo
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.54evenly matched on net striking+0.61
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Tony FergusonDanny Castillo
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Danny Castillo(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +129.2|Blue -129.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -28.0|Blue +28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Tony FergusonTargetDanny Castillo
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Danny Castillo edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:02
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:31Control
Round 2Danny Castillo edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:05
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:32Control
Round 3Danny Castillo edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
0Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
4:26Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
