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Welterweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Tony Ferguson won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1355
Ramsey Nijem
Elo1485

Ramsey NijemvsTony FergusonUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale · Saturday, June 4, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tony Ferguson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:54

Style matchupRamsey Nijem: WrestlervsTony Ferguson: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Tony Ferguson wins(50.5%)

Actual result: Tony Ferguson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tony Ferguson at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Ramsey Nijem
Red Corner
VS
Tony Ferguson
Blue Corner
-105
(51%)
Vegas Odds
-115
(53%)
1355
Elo
1485
38
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'11"
190.5 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ramsey NijemL2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs James Vick · Aug 13
W
vs Justin Edwards · Jan 14
W
KOvs Beneil Dariush · Apr 14
L
KOvs Diego Ferreira · Aug 14
L
vs Andrew Holbrook · Jul 15
latest
Tony FergusonL5 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22
L
SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22
L
SUBvs King Green · Jul 23
L
vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23
L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ramsey NijemMetricTony Ferguson
3.05
Strikes / min
4.91
1.62
Strikes absorbed / min
4.37
62%
Strike defense
55%
5.32
TDs / 15 min
0.39
55%
Takedown defense
66%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.43evenly matched on net striking+0.54
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Ramsey Nijem(10 fights)Tony Ferguson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -130.0|Blue +130.0
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ramsey NijemTargetTony Ferguson

By target zone

10
19% acc · 83%
Head
19
59% acc · 90%
2
67% acc · 17%
Body
1
50% acc · 5%
0
0% acc
Leg
1
25% acc · 5%

By position

12
22% acc · 100%
Distance
14
48% acc · 67%
0
0% acc
Clinch
2
67% acc · 10%
0
Ground
5
83% acc · 24%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Ramsey Nijem rounds
0
even
1
Tony Ferguson rounds
Round 1Tony Ferguson edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
21Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:15Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
12 / 57
Sig Strikes
21 / 38
21%
Sig Str %
55%
13 / 58
Total Strikes
29 / 46
0 / 0
TDs
2 / 3
—
TD %
66%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
1:15

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Tony Ferguson21 / 3829 / 462 / 30
1Ramsey Nijem12 / 5713 / 580 / 00

Ramsey Nijem

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights10

Tony Ferguson

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights24