Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Kamaru Usman has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kamaru Usman (54.1%).
- Kamaru Usman has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Demian MaiaL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19W
DECvs Rocco Martin · Jun 19W
SUBvs Ben Askren · Oct 19L
KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 20L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 21 Kamaru Usman
oldest →L
KOvs Leon Edwards · Aug 22L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 23L
vs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 23W
vs Joaquin Buckley · Jun 25L
DECvs Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Demian MaiaMetricKamaru Usman
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.27Δ 1.76 — meaningful gap+1.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Demian MaiaKamaru Usman
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Demian Maia(10 fights)Kamaru Usman(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -87.1|Blue +87.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.1|Blue +1.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +78.0|Blue -78.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Demian MaiaTargetKamaru Usman
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control2:01
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:00
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:37Control
Round 3Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:26Control
Round 4Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:31Control
1Knockdowns
Round 5Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:44Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
