Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jon Jones enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Jon Jones has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Chael Sonnen (53.5%).
- Jon Jones has a 28cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jon JonesW5 streak
oldest →W
vs Anthony Smith · Mar 19W
vs Thiago Santos · Jul 19W
vs Dominick Reyes · Feb 20W
SUBvs Ciryl Gane · Mar 23W
KOvs Stipe Miocic · Nov 24 Chael Sonnen
oldest →W
SUBvs Brian Stann · Oct 11W
vs Michael Bisping · Jan 12L
KOvs Anderson Silva · Jul 12W
SUBvs Mauricio Rua · Aug 13L
KOvs Rashad Evans · Nov 13 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jon JonesMetricChael Sonnen
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+2.14evenly matched on net striking+1.98
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Jon JonesChael Sonnen
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jon Jones(10 fights)Chael Sonnen(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +21.2|Blue -21.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -77.0|Blue +77.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Jon JonesTargetChael Sonnen
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Jon Jones edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns3
Control4:05
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
