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Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Jacqueline Cavalcanti won · U-DEC R3

Elo1470

Elo1538

Zarah FairnvsJacqueline CavalcantiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · Saturday, September 2, 2023Paris, Ile-de-France, France

Official fight result

Jacqueline Cavalcanti won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupZarah Fairn: Pressure fightervsJacqueline Cavalcanti: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Jacqueline Cavalcanti wins(75.4%)

Actual result: Jacqueline Cavalcanti wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jacqueline Cavalcanti at -380 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Zarah Fairn enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jacqueline Cavalcanti has 23pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jacqueline Cavalcanti has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Zarah Fairn

Red Corner

Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Blue Corner

+300

(25%)

Vegas Odds

-380

(79%)

1470

Elo

1538

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Zarah FairnL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Megan Anderson · Oct 19

KOvs Felicia Spencer · Feb 20

vs Josiane Nunes · Jan 23

latest

Jacqueline Cavalcanti

oldest →

vs Josiane Nunes · Aug 24

vs Nora Cornolle · Sep 24

vs Julia Avila · Feb 25

vs Mayra Bueno Silva · Nov 25

DECvs Ketlen Vieira · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Zarah FairnMetricJacqueline Cavalcanti

4.55

Strikes / min

5.65

7.40

Strikes absorbed / min

3.17

45%

Strike defense

68%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

60%

Takedown defense

88%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.85Δ 5.33 — meaningful gap+2.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Zarah FairnJacqueline Cavalcanti

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Zarah Fairn(4 fights)Jacqueline Cavalcanti(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -67.3|Blue +67.3

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Zarah FairnTargetJacqueline Cavalcanti

By target zone

10% acc · 64%

Head

34% acc · 34%

67% acc · 21%

Body

91% acc · 16%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

88% acc · 50%

By position

15% acc · 100%

Distance

116

56% acc · 92%

0% acc

Clinch

83% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Zarah Fairn rounds

even

Jacqueline Cavalcanti rounds

Round 1Jacqueline Cavalcanti edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jacqueline Cavalcanti edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

46Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jacqueline Cavalcanti edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:04

44Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 259

Sig Strikes

126 / 221

14%

Sig Str %

56.7%

39 / 259

Total Strikes

127 / 222

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jacqueline Cavalcanti	36 / 62	36 / 62	0 / 0
1	Zarah Fairn	5 / 86	5 / 86	0 / 0
2	Jacqueline Cavalcanti	46 / 81	46 / 81	0 / 0
2	Zarah Fairn	10 / 80	10 / 80	0 / 1
3	Jacqueline Cavalcanti	44 / 78	45 / 79	0 / 1
3	Zarah Fairn	24 / 93	24 / 93	0 / 1

Zarah Fairn

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4

Jacqueline Cavalcanti

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5