← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

5 Rounds

Charles Oliveira won · U-DEC R5

Elo1517

Elo1521

Max HollowayvsCharles OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · Saturday, March 7, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Charles Oliveira won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupMax Holloway: Pressure fightervsCharles Oliveira: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Charles Oliveira wins(62.7%)

Actual result: Charles Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charles Oliveira at +164 American odds

+$164 profit

$264 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Max Holloway has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Max Holloway has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Charles Oliveira has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Max Holloway

Red Corner

Charles Oliveira

Blue Corner

-196

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+164

(38%)

1517

Elo

1521

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

175.26 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Max HollowayW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Aug 23

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Oct 24

vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 26

latest

Charles Oliveira

oldest →

KOvs Beneil Dariush · Jun 23

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24

vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Max HollowayMetricCharles Oliveira

6.91

Strikes / min

3.23

4.61

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

58%

Strike defense

48%

0.23

TDs / 15 min

2.29

81%

Takedown defense

54%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

2.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.30Δ 2.12 — meaningful gap+0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Max HollowayCharles Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Max Holloway(10 fights)Charles Oliveira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.8|Blue +3.8

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Max HollowayTargetCharles Oliveira

By target zone

50% acc · 69%

Head

73% acc · 74%

86% acc · 23%

Body

78% acc · 14%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 12%

By position

57% acc · 96%

Distance

65% acc · 48%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

Ground

89% acc · 48%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Max Holloway rounds

even

Charles Oliveira rounds

Round 1Charles Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:30Control

Round 2Charles Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:40Control

Round 3Charles Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:29Control

Round 4Charles Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:16Control

Round 5Charles Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control1:36

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:54Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 45

Sig Strikes

50 / 66

56.2%

Sig Str %

75.4%

73 / 92

Total Strikes

110 / 137

0 / 0

TDs

5 / 13

—

TD %

48.2%

Sub Att

Rev

1:36

Ctrl Time

20:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Charles Oliveira	10 / 14	19 / 25	1 / 1	2
1	Max Holloway	8 / 13	11 / 16	0 / 0	0
2	Charles Oliveira	13 / 15	24 / 26	1 / 2	2
2	Max Holloway	5 / 7	16 / 18	0 / 0	0
3	Charles Oliveira	9 / 14	18 / 23	1 / 4	0
3	Max Holloway	2 / 5	10 / 13	0 / 0	0
4	Max Holloway	6 / 11	8 / 13	0 / 0	0
4	Charles Oliveira	9 / 11	25 / 36	1 / 3	0
5	Charles Oliveira	9 / 12	24 / 27	1 / 3	0
5	Max Holloway	5 / 9	28 / 32	0 / 0	0

Max Holloway

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights33

Charles Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights36