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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Jack Hermansson won · SUB R1

Elo1480

Elo1492

Jack HermanssonvsKelvin GastelumUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 · Saturday, July 18, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Jack Hermansson won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:18

Style matchupJack Hermansson: Pressure fightervsKelvin Gastelum: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Jack Hermansson wins(72.4%)

Actual result: Jack Hermansson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jack Hermansson at -112 American odds

+$89 profit

$189 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jack Hermansson has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kelvin Gastelum (53.5%).
Jack Hermansson has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jack Hermansson

Red Corner

Kelvin Gastelum

Blue Corner

-112

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-112

(53%)

1480

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

5'9"

195.58 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jack HermanssonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Chris Curtis · Jul 22

KOvs Roman Dolidze · Dec 22

vs Joe Pyfer · Feb 24

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Jun 25

KOvs Myktybek Orolbai · Nov 25

latest

Kelvin Gastelum

oldest →

SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24

vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25

vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jack HermanssonMetricKelvin Gastelum

5.15

Strikes / min

3.65

3.72

Strikes absorbed / min

3.52

56%

Strike defense

57%

1.48

TDs / 15 min

1.04

80%

Takedown defense

60%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.43Δ 1.30 — meaningful gap+0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jack HermanssonKelvin Gastelum

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jack Hermansson(10 fights)Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -11.1|Blue +11.1

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jack HermanssonTargetKelvin Gastelum

By target zone

0% acc

Head

0% acc

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 100%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 100%

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jack Hermansson rounds

even

Kelvin Gastelum rounds

Round 1Kelvin Gastelum edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

0Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:33Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 4

Sig Strikes

0 / 3

50%

Sig Str %

2 / 4

Total Strikes

1 / 5

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kelvin Gastelum	0 / 3	1 / 5	1 / 1	0
1	Jack Hermansson	2 / 4	2 / 4	0 / 1	1

Jack Hermansson

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19

Kelvin Gastelum

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24