Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Seth Baczynski enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Mike Pierce has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Mike Pierce has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Seth Baczynski has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mike PierceL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Carlos Eduardo Rocha · Jun 12W
KOvs Aaron Simpson · Oct 12W
KOvs David Mitchell · Jul 13L
SUBvs Rousimar Palhares · Oct 13L
vs Ryan LaFlare · Dec 15 Seth BaczynskiL3 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Brian Melancon · Jul 13L
vs Thiago Alves · Apr 14L
KOvs Alan Jouban · Aug 14L
KOvs Leon Edwards · Apr 15 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mike PierceMetricSeth Baczynski
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.26evenly matched on net striking-0.06
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Mike PierceSeth Baczynski
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mike Pierce(10 fights)Seth Baczynski(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -13.0|Blue +13.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Mike PierceTargetSeth Baczynski
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Mike Pierce edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns3
Control3:56
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Mike Pierce edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns1
Control2:57
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:12Control
Round 3Seth Baczynski edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns2
Control3:09
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
