← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Arnold Allen won · U-DEC R3

Elo1511

Elo1395

Arnold AllenvsNik LentzUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos · Saturday, January 25, 2020Raleigh, North Carolina, USA

Official fight result

Arnold Allen won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupArnold Allen: Well-roundedvsNik Lentz: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Nik Lentz wins(60.0%)

Actual result: Arnold Allen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nik Lentz at +195 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Arnold Allen has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Arnold Allen has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Arnold Allen (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Arnold Allen

Red Corner

Nik Lentz

Blue Corner

-235

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1511

Elo

1395

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Arnold Allen

oldest →

vs Max Holloway · Apr 23

vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 24

vs Giga Chikadze · Jul 24

vs Jean Silva · Jan 26

DECvs Melquizael Costa · May 26

latest

Nik LentzL2 streak

oldest →

vs David Teymur · Jun 18

KOvs Gray Maynard · Oct 18

vs Scott Holtzman · Feb 19

KOvs Charles Oliveira · May 19

vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Arnold AllenMetricNik Lentz

3.47

Strikes / min

3.44

3.04

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

60%

Strike defense

50%

0.86

TDs / 15 min

3.30

71%

Takedown defense

43%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.43evenly matched on net striking+0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Arnold AllenNik Lentz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Arnold Allen(10 fights)Nik Lentz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +116.2|Blue -116.2

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Arnold AllenTargetNik Lentz

By target zone

47% acc · 92%

Head

18% acc · 51%

71% acc · 8%

Body

70% acc · 33%

Leg

89% acc · 16%

By position

48% acc · 97%

Distance

26% acc · 86%

67% acc · 3%

Clinch

70% acc · 14%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Arnold Allen rounds

even

Nik Lentz rounds

Round 1Arnold Allen edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:07

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:56Control

Round 2Arnold Allen edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:17

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 3Arnold Allen edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:57

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 131

Sig Strikes

49 / 172

46.7%

Sig Str %

27.7%

68 / 137

Total Strikes

63 / 190

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 9

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:21

Ctrl Time

1:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nik Lentz	16 / 49	20 / 55	0 / 4
1	Arnold Allen	20 / 41	20 / 41	0 / 1
2	Nik Lentz	24 / 68	27 / 73	0 / 2
2	Arnold Allen	29 / 56	30 / 57	0 / 0
3	Nik Lentz	9 / 55	16 / 62	0 / 3
3	Arnold Allen	14 / 34	18 / 39	0 / 0

Arnold Allen

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights14

Nik Lentz

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights22