Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gavin Tucker threatens submissions; Justin Jaynes has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Gavin Tucker has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Gavin Tucker (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gavin TuckerL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Seungwoo Choi · Jul 19W
vs Billy Quarantillo · Dec 20L
SUBvs Diego Lopes · Aug 23 Justin JaynesL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Frank Camacho · Jun 20L
KOvs Gabriel Benitez · Dec 20L
vs Charles Rosa · Jun 21 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gavin TuckerMetricJustin Jaynes
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.11Δ 2.10 — meaningful gap-1.99
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Gavin TuckerJustin Jaynes
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gavin Tucker(7 fights)Justin Jaynes(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +69.7|Blue -69.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +329.0|Blue -329.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Gavin TuckerTargetJustin Jaynes
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Justin Jaynes edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns1
Control0:35
Knockdowns0
28Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:38Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2Gavin Tucker edged it
Sig. strikes63
Takedowns0
Control0:00
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Gavin Tucker edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:49
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
