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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Nate Marquardt won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1491

Elo1363

CB DollawayvsNate MarquardtUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · Saturday, December 19, 2015Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Nate Marquardt won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:28

Style matchupCB Dollaway: WrestlervsNate Marquardt: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Nate Marquardt wins(60.5%)

Actual result: Nate Marquardt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nate Marquardt at +350 American odds

+$350 profit

$450 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nate Marquardt enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Nate Marquardt is a KO finisher (60% of wins). CB Dollaway has lost 71% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

CB Dollaway

Red Corner

Nate Marquardt

Blue Corner

-440

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+350

(22%)

1491

Elo

1363

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

193.04 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

CB Dollaway

oldest →

KOvs Lyoto Machida · Dec 14

vs Michael Bisping · Apr 15

vs Ed Herman · Jul 17

vs Hector Lombard · Mar 18

KOvs Khalid Murtazaliev · Sep 18

latest

Nate MarquardtL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Thiago Santos · May 16

KOvs Tamdan McCrory · Oct 16

vs Sam Alvey · Jan 17

vs Vitor Belfort · Jun 17

vs Cezar Ferreira · Nov 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

CB DollawayMetricNate Marquardt

2.65

Strikes / min

2.71

2.58

Strikes absorbed / min

2.32

54%

Strike defense

55%

3.55

TDs / 15 min

1.87

62%

Takedown defense

70%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.07evenly matched on net striking+0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

CB DollawayNate Marquardt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

CB Dollaway(10 fights)Nate Marquardt(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +128.7|Blue -128.7

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

CB DollawayTargetNate Marquardt

By target zone

38% acc · 60%

Head

33% acc · 25%

50% acc · 27%

Body

78% acc · 44%

67% acc · 13%

Leg

83% acc · 31%

By position

38% acc · 80%

Distance

56% acc · 88%

100% acc · 20%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

CB Dollaway rounds

even

Nate Marquardt rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:03

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Nate Marquardt edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 35

Sig Strikes

16 / 27

41.5%

Sig Str %

65.5%

15 / 35

Total Strikes

16 / 27

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nate Marquardt	13 / 23	13 / 23	0 / 0
1	CB Dollaway	13 / 30	13 / 30	0 / 1
2	Nate Marquardt	3 / 4	3 / 4	0 / 0
2	CB Dollaway	2 / 5	2 / 5	0 / 0

CB Dollaway

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights14

Nate Marquardt

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14