Welterweight

3 Rounds

Tom Breese won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1356

Elo1493

Cathal PendredvsTom BreeseUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smolka · Saturday, October 24, 2015Dublin, Leinster, Ireland

Official fight result

Tom Breese won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:37

Style matchupCathal Pendred: WrestlervsTom Breese: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Cathal Pendred wins(63.1%)

Actual result: Tom Breese wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cathal Pendred at +240 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tom Breese is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Cathal Pendred has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Tom Breese (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Cathal Pendred

Red Corner

Tom Breese

Blue Corner

+240

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-280

(74%)

1356

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cathal Pendred

oldest →

SUBvs Mike King · Jul 14

vs Gasan Umalatov · Oct 14

vs Sean Spencer · Jan 15

vs Augusto Montano · Jun 15

vs John Howard · Jul 15

latest

Tom Breese

oldest →

vs Sean Strickland · Jun 16

KOvs Daniel Kelly · May 18

KOvs Brendan Allen · Feb 20

KOvs KB Bhullar · Oct 20

SUBvs Omari Akhmedov · Jan 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cathal PendredMetricTom Breese

2.49

Strikes / min

3.34

3.01

Strikes absorbed / min

2.81

55%

Strike defense

60%

2.46

TDs / 15 min

0.00

83%

Takedown defense

70%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.52Δ 1.05 — meaningful gap+0.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cathal PendredTom Breese

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cathal Pendred(6 fights)Tom Breese(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -137.4|Blue +137.4

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cathal PendredTargetTom Breese

By target zone

12% acc · 40%

Head

63% acc · 87%

100% acc · 40%

Body

100% acc · 13%

20% acc · 20%

Leg

By position

14% acc · 60%

Distance

65% acc · 96%

100% acc · 40%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cathal Pendred rounds

even

Tom Breese rounds

Round 1Tom Breese edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:29

Knockdowns0

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 24

Sig Strikes

23 / 35

20%

Sig Str %

65%

8 / 28

Total Strikes

24 / 36

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:29

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tom Breese	23 / 35	24 / 36	0 / 0	0
1	Cathal Pendred	5 / 24	8 / 28	0 / 1	0

Cathal Pendred

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6

Tom Breese

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8