Welterweight

3 Rounds

Cathal Pendred won · U-DEC R3

Elo1356

Elo1358

Cathal PendredvsSean SpencerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · Sunday, January 18, 2015Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Cathal Pendred won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCathal Pendred: WrestlervsSean Spencer: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Cathal Pendred wins(63.2%)

Actual result: Cathal Pendred wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cathal Pendred at +160 American odds

+$160 profit

$260 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cathal Pendred has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Sean Spencer (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Cathal Pendred

Red Corner

Sean Spencer

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1356

Elo

1358

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cathal PendredL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Mike King · Jul 14

vs Gasan Umalatov · Oct 14

vs Augusto Montano · Jun 15

vs John Howard · Jul 15

KOvs Tom Breese · Oct 15

latest

Sean SpencerL2 streak

oldest →

vs Drew Dober · Nov 13

vs Alex Garcia · Mar 14

vs Paulo Thiago · Sep 14

KOvs Mike Pyle · Feb 16

SUBvs Yancy Medeiros · Sep 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cathal PendredMetricSean Spencer

2.49

Strikes / min

4.24

3.01

Strikes absorbed / min

4.02

55%

Strike defense

60%

2.46

TDs / 15 min

0.14

83%

Takedown defense

68%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.52evenly matched on net striking+0.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cathal PendredSean Spencer

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cathal Pendred(6 fights)Sean Spencer(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.3|Blue +2.3

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -2.2|Blue +2.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cathal PendredTargetSean Spencer

By target zone

26% acc · 41%

Head

31% acc · 79%

17% acc · 2%

Body

47% acc · 17%

93% acc · 57%

Leg

50% acc · 4%

By position

41% acc · 86%

Distance

33% acc · 94%

88% acc · 14%

Clinch

25% acc · 2%

0% acc

Ground

50% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cathal Pendred rounds

even

Sean Spencer rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns2

Control2:47

Knockdowns0

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Cathal Pendred edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control1:02

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Cathal Pendred edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control0:39

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 112

Sig Strikes

52 / 155

44.3%

Sig Str %

33.7%

59 / 122

Total Strikes

52 / 155

4 / 12

TDs

0 / 0

52.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:28

Ctrl Time

0:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sean Spencer	15 / 39	15 / 39	0 / 0
1	Cathal Pendred	11 / 22	20 / 31	2 / 8
2	Sean Spencer	21 / 60	21 / 60	0 / 0
2	Cathal Pendred	20 / 48	20 / 48	1 / 1
3	Sean Spencer	16 / 56	16 / 56	0 / 0
3	Cathal Pendred	18 / 42	19 / 43	1 / 3

Cathal Pendred

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6

Sean Spencer

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights8