Welterweight

3 Rounds

John Howard won · S-DEC R3

Elo1356

Elo1490

Cathal PendredvsJohn HowardUFC Prediction Result

UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · Saturday, July 11, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

John Howard won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCathal Pendred: WrestlervsJohn Howard: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Cathal Pendred wins(77.4%)

Actual result: John Howard wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cathal Pendred at -135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

John Howard enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Cathal Pendred has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Cathal Pendred

Red Corner

John Howard

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1356

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'7"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cathal Pendred

oldest →

SUBvs Mike King · Jul 14

vs Gasan Umalatov · Oct 14

vs Sean Spencer · Jan 15

vs Augusto Montano · Jun 15

KOvs Tom Breese · Oct 15

latest

John HowardL4 streak

oldest →

vs Siyar Bahadurzada · Dec 13

vs Ryan LaFlare · Apr 14

vs Brian Ebersole · Sep 14

KOvs Lorenz Larkin · Jan 15

KOvs Tim Means · Dec 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cathal PendredMetricJohn Howard

2.49

Strikes / min

2.15

3.01

Strikes absorbed / min

3.08

55%

Strike defense

51%

2.46

TDs / 15 min

2.70

83%

Takedown defense

53%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.52evenly matched on net striking-0.93

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cathal PendredJohn Howard

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cathal Pendred(6 fights)John Howard(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -134.9|Blue +134.9

Recent Form

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -146.0|Blue +146.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cathal PendredTargetJohn Howard

By target zone

25% acc · 24%

Head

49% acc · 73%

77% acc · 44%

Body

63% acc · 10%

82% acc · 31%

Leg

89% acc · 17%

By position

39% acc · 53%

Distance

52% acc · 65%

84% acc · 47%

Clinch

59% acc · 33%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cathal Pendred rounds

even

John Howard rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:04Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:12

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 3John Howard edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:32

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 87

Sig Strikes

48 / 88

51.3%

Sig Str %

55%

62 / 104

Total Strikes

78 / 119

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:44

Ctrl Time

1:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	John Howard	14 / 22	21 / 29	0 / 0	0
1	Cathal Pendred	17 / 33	26 / 42	0 / 0	0
2	John Howard	16 / 32	27 / 44	0 / 0	0
2	Cathal Pendred	15 / 26	21 / 32	0 / 0	0
3	John Howard	18 / 34	30 / 46	0 / 1	0
3	Cathal Pendred	13 / 28	15 / 30	0 / 2	1

Cathal Pendred

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6

John Howard

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11