Welterweight

3 Rounds

Cathal Pendred won · S-DEC R3

Elo1356

Cathal PendredvsGasan UmalatovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · Saturday, October 4, 2014Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Cathal Pendred won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Cathal Pendred wins(55.3%)

Actual result: Cathal Pendred wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cathal Pendred at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cathal Pendred has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Cathal Pendred

Red Corner

Gasan Umalatov

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1356

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cathal PendredL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Mike King · Jul 14

vs Sean Spencer · Jan 15

vs Augusto Montano · Jun 15

vs John Howard · Jul 15

KOvs Tom Breese · Oct 15

latest

Gasan Umalatov

oldest →

vs Neil Magny · Feb 14

vs Paulo Thiago · May 14

vs Viscardi Andrade · Nov 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cathal PendredMetricGasan Umalatov

2.49

Strikes / min

2.23

3.01

Strikes absorbed / min

4.10

55%

Strike defense

59%

2.46

TDs / 15 min

0.75

83%

Takedown defense

90%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.52Δ 1.35 — meaningful gap-1.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cathal PendredGasan Umalatov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cathal Pendred(6 fights)Gasan Umalatov(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cathal PendredTargetGasan Umalatov

By target zone

24% acc · 25%

Head

35% acc · 74%

86% acc · 22%

Body

44% acc · 11%

94% acc · 53%

Leg

86% acc · 16%

By position

50% acc · 87%

Distance

38% acc · 92%

100% acc · 13%

Clinch

75% acc · 8%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cathal Pendred rounds

even

Gasan Umalatov rounds

Round 1Cathal Pendred edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control2:18

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:13

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 3Cathal Pendred edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

55 / 103

Sig Strikes

38 / 97

53.7%

Sig Str %

38.7%

58 / 106

Total Strikes

54 / 116

1 / 14

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:31

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gasan Umalatov	7 / 18	14 / 27	0 / 1
1	Cathal Pendred	16 / 26	17 / 27	1 / 8
2	Gasan Umalatov	16 / 37	24 / 46	0 / 0
2	Cathal Pendred	16 / 34	18 / 36	0 / 3
3	Gasan Umalatov	15 / 42	16 / 43	0 / 0
3	Cathal Pendred	23 / 43	23 / 43	0 / 3

Cathal Pendred

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6

Gasan Umalatov

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4