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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Cat Zingano won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1404

Cat ZinganovsMarion ReneauUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · Saturday, July 14, 2018Boise, Idaho, USA

Official fight result

Cat Zingano won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Cat Zingano wins(50.7%)

Actual result: Cat Zingano wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cat Zingano at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cat Zingano enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Marion Reneau enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Marion Reneau has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Cat Zingano (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Cat Zingano

Red Corner

Marion Reneau

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1491

Elo

1404

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cat ZinganoL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Amanda Nunes · Sep 14

SUBvs Ronda Rousey · Feb 15

vs Julianna Pena · Jul 16

vs Ketlen Vieira · Mar 18

KOvs Megan Anderson · Dec 18

latest

Marion ReneauL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Sara McMann · Feb 18

vs Yana Kunitskaya · Mar 19

vs Raquel Pennington · Jun 20

vs Macy Chiasson · Mar 21

KOvs Miesha Tate · Jul 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cat ZinganoMetricMarion Reneau

2.57

Strikes / min

3.20

1.63

Strikes absorbed / min

3.52

47%

Strike defense

59%

2.77

TDs / 15 min

0.62

42%

Takedown defense

50%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.94Δ 1.26 — meaningful gap-0.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cat ZinganoMarion Reneau

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cat Zingano(7 fights)Marion Reneau(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +87.6|Blue -87.6

Recent Form

Red -1.7|Blue +1.7

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cat ZinganoTargetMarion Reneau

By target zone

44% acc · 42%

Head

29% acc · 71%

77% acc · 30%

Body

75% acc · 21%

75% acc · 27%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

52% acc · 36%

Distance

24% acc · 57%

89% acc · 24%

Clinch

100% acc · 43%

52% acc · 39%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cat Zingano rounds

even

Marion Reneau rounds

Round 1Cat Zingano edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control1:13

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:16Control

Round 2Cat Zingano edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns3

Control3:04

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Cat Zingano edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control4:37

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 57

Sig Strikes

14 / 39

58%

Sig Str %

34%

94 / 123

Total Strikes

35 / 62

6 / 10

TDs

0 / 0

70%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:54

Ctrl Time

1:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marion Reneau	9 / 23	16 / 30	0 / 0
1	Cat Zingano	14 / 24	20 / 30	2 / 4
2	Marion Reneau	4 / 13	11 / 21	0 / 0
2	Cat Zingano	10 / 19	29 / 41	3 / 5
3	Marion Reneau	1 / 3	8 / 11	0 / 0
3	Cat Zingano	9 / 14	45 / 52	1 / 1

Cat Zingano

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights7

Marion Reneau

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights12