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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Cat Zingano won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1491

Elo1501

Cat ZinganovsAmanda NunesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · Saturday, September 27, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Cat Zingano won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:21

Style matchupCat Zingano: WrestlervsAmanda Nunes: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Cat Zingano wins(73.8%)

Actual result: Cat Zingano wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cat Zingano at -215 American odds

+$47 profit

$147 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cat Zingano is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Amanda Nunes has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Amanda Nunes has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Amanda Nunes has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Cat Zingano (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Cat Zingano

Red Corner

Amanda Nunes

Blue Corner

-215

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1491

Elo

1501

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'8"

172.72 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cat Zingano

oldest →

SUBvs Ronda Rousey · Feb 15

vs Julianna Pena · Jul 16

vs Ketlen Vieira · Mar 18

vs Marion Reneau · Jul 18

KOvs Megan Anderson · Dec 18

latest

Amanda NunesW2 streak

oldest →

vs Felicia Spencer · Jun 20

SUBvs Megan Anderson · Mar 21

SUBvs Julianna Pena · Dec 21

vs Julianna Pena · Jul 22

vs Irene Aldana · Jun 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cat ZinganoMetricAmanda Nunes

2.57

Strikes / min

4.55

1.63

Strikes absorbed / min

2.62

47%

Strike defense

57%

2.77

TDs / 15 min

2.73

42%

Takedown defense

82%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.94evenly matched on net striking+1.93

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cat ZinganoAmanda Nunes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cat Zingano(7 fights)Amanda Nunes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -10.0|Blue +10.0

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +207.0|Blue -207.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cat ZinganoTargetAmanda Nunes

By target zone

63% acc · 78%

Head

56% acc · 86%

78% acc · 18%

Body

100% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

20% acc · 3%

Distance

50% acc · 5%

88% acc · 18%

Clinch

33% acc · 5%

68% acc · 80%

Ground

63% acc · 91%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cat Zingano rounds

even

Amanda Nunes rounds

Round 1Amanda Nunes edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control1:27

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:08Control

Round 2Cat Zingano edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control4:28

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Cat Zingano edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control1:02

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 60

Sig Strikes

22 / 37

68.3%

Sig Str %

53.3%

93 / 116

Total Strikes

36 / 54

3 / 3

TDs

1 / 2

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

6:57

Ctrl Time

3:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Amanda Nunes	21 / 35	32 / 49	1 / 2	0
1	Cat Zingano	3 / 4	14 / 18	1 / 1	1
2	Amanda Nunes	1 / 1	4 / 4	0 / 0	0
2	Cat Zingano	20 / 29	55 / 64	1 / 1	2
3	Amanda Nunes	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0
3	Cat Zingano	17 / 27	24 / 34	1 / 1	0

Cat Zingano

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights7

Amanda Nunes

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights18