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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Casey O'Neill won · SUB R3

Elo1520

Elo1493

Casey O'NeillvsLara ProcopioUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige · Saturday, June 19, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Casey O'Neill won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:54

Style matchupCasey O'Neill: Pressure fightervsLara Procopio: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Casey O'Neill wins(69.7%)

Actual result: Casey O'Neill wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Casey O'Neill at +135 American odds

+$135 profit

$235 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Casey O'Neill has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Casey O'Neill has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Casey O'Neill

Red Corner

Lara Procopio

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-167

(63%)

1520

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'4"

175.26 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Casey O'NeillW2 streak

oldest →

vs Roxanne Modafferi · Feb 22

vs Jennifer Maia · Mar 23

SUBvs Ariane da Silva · Dec 23

vs Luana Santos · Aug 24

KOvs Gabriella Fernandes · Mar 26

latest

Lara Procopio

oldest →

vs Karol Rosa · Aug 19

vs Molly McCann · Feb 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Casey O'NeillMetricLara Procopio

7.89

Strikes / min

5.64

5.53

Strikes absorbed / min

6.50

57%

Strike defense

47%

1.40

TDs / 15 min

3.15

70%

Takedown defense

50%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.36Δ 3.22 — meaningful gap-0.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Casey O'NeillLara Procopio

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Casey O'Neill(8 fights)Lara Procopio(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +27.1|Blue -27.1

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Casey O'NeillTargetLara Procopio

By target zone

42% acc · 58%

Head

43% acc · 41%

92% acc · 32%

Body

94% acc · 37%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 22%

By position

46% acc · 61%

Distance

53% acc · 63%

75% acc · 13%

Clinch

93% acc · 34%

83% acc · 27%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Casey O'Neill rounds

even

Lara Procopio rounds

Round 1Lara Procopio edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:36

32Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:50Control

Round 2Casey O'Neill edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control2:33

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:00Control

Round 3Casey O'Neill edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control2:33

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

71 / 129

Sig Strikes

41 / 65

57.3%

Sig Str %

64.7%

176 / 246

Total Strikes

76 / 103

1 / 2

TDs

2 / 5

50%

TD %

41.5%

Sub Att

Rev

5:42

Ctrl Time

2:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Lara Procopio	32 / 50	63 / 82	1 / 3	0
1	Casey O'Neill	26 / 67	34 / 77	0 / 1	0
2	Lara Procopio	5 / 10	8 / 15	1 / 2	0
2	Casey O'Neill	38 / 50	68 / 84	0 / 0	1
3	Lara Procopio	4 / 5	5 / 6	0 / 0	0
3	Casey O'Neill	7 / 12	74 / 85	1 / 1	1

Casey O'Neill

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights8

Lara Procopio

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights3