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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Casey O'Neill won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1520

Elo1509

Casey O'NeillvsGabriella FernandesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Saturday, March 28, 2026Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Casey O'Neill won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:11

Style matchupCasey O'Neill: Pressure fightervsGabriella Fernandes: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Casey O'Neill wins(77.2%)

Actual result: Casey O'Neill wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Casey O'Neill at -113 American odds

+$88 profit

$188 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gabriella Fernandes enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Gabriella Fernandes (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Casey O'Neill

Red Corner

Gabriella Fernandes

Blue Corner

-113

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-113

(53%)

1520

Elo

1509

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Casey O'Neill

oldest →

KOvs Antonina Shevchenko · Oct 21

vs Roxanne Modafferi · Feb 22

vs Jennifer Maia · Mar 23

SUBvs Ariane da Silva · Dec 23

vs Luana Santos · Aug 24

latest

Gabriella FernandesW3 streak

oldest →

vs Jasmine Jasudavicius · Feb 23

vs Tereza Bleda · Jun 23

vs Carli Judice · Jun 24

SUBvs Wang Cong · Nov 24

vs Julija Stoliarenko · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Casey O'NeillMetricGabriella Fernandes

7.89

Strikes / min

3.51

5.53

Strikes absorbed / min

5.31

57%

Strike defense

53%

1.40

TDs / 15 min

0.42

70%

Takedown defense

68%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.36Δ 4.16 — meaningful gap-1.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Casey O'NeillGabriella Fernandes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Casey O'Neill(8 fights)Gabriella Fernandes(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +11.0|Blue -11.0

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +357.0|Blue -357.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Casey O'NeillTargetGabriella Fernandes

By target zone

30% acc · 64%

Head

11% acc · 38%

50% acc · 12%

Body

100% acc · 38%

100% acc · 24%

Leg

67% acc · 25%

By position

38% acc · 100%

Distance

24% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Casey O'Neill rounds

even

Gabriella Fernandes rounds

Round 1Casey O'Neill edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns1

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 66

Sig Strikes

8 / 33

37%

Sig Str %

24%

25 / 66

Total Strikes

8 / 33

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gabriella Fernandes	8 / 33	8 / 33	0 / 0	0
1	Casey O'Neill	25 / 66	25 / 66	0 / 0	0

Casey O'Neill

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights8

Gabriella Fernandes

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights6