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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Ariane da Silva won · SUB R2

Elo1520

Elo1487

Casey O'NeillvsAriane da SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Saturday, December 16, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ariane da Silva won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:18

Style matchupCasey O'Neill: Pressure fightervsAriane da Silva: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Ariane da Silva wins(50.7%)

Actual result: Ariane da Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ariane da Silva enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Casey O'Neill

Red Corner

Ariane da Silva

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1520

Elo

1487

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Casey O'NeillW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Antonina Shevchenko · Oct 21

vs Roxanne Modafferi · Feb 22

vs Jennifer Maia · Mar 23

vs Luana Santos · Aug 24

KOvs Gabriella Fernandes · Mar 26

latest

Ariane da SilvaL3 streak

oldest →

vs JJ Aldrich · Mar 23

vs Melissa Gatto · Jul 23

vs Karine Silva · Apr 24

SUBvs Jasmine Jasudavicius · Nov 24

vs Wang Cong · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Casey O'NeillMetricAriane da Silva

7.89

Strikes / min

4.05

5.53

Strikes absorbed / min

4.40

57%

Strike defense

50%

1.40

TDs / 15 min

0.47

70%

Takedown defense

68%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.36Δ 2.71 — meaningful gap-0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Casey O'NeillAriane da Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Casey O'Neill(8 fights)Ariane da Silva(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +33.6|Blue -33.6

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +105.0|Blue -105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Casey O'NeillTargetAriane da Silva

By target zone

30% acc · 55%

Head

42% acc · 70%

100% acc · 10%

Body

89% acc · 25%

79% acc · 35%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

40% acc · 94%

Distance

39% acc · 58%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

82% acc · 14%

Ground

86% acc · 28%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Casey O'Neill rounds

even

Ariane da Silva rounds

Round 1Ariane da Silva edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:20

39Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 2Ariane da Silva edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:53Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 74

Sig Strikes

64 / 127

45.5%

Sig Str %

57%

32 / 75

Total Strikes

86 / 152

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:20

Ctrl Time

0:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ariane da Silva	39 / 93	44 / 98	1 / 1	0
1	Casey O'Neill	28 / 68	29 / 69	0 / 1	0
2	Ariane da Silva	25 / 34	42 / 54	0 / 0	1
2	Casey O'Neill	3 / 6	3 / 6	0 / 1	0

Casey O'Neill

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights8

Ariane da Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights6