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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Merab Dvalishvili won · U-DEC R3

Elo1406

Elo1542

Casey KenneyvsMerab DvalishviliUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · Saturday, February 15, 2020Rio Rancho, New Mexico, USA

Official fight result

Merab Dvalishvili won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCasey Kenney: Pressure fightervsMerab Dvalishvili: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Casey Kenney wins(65.2%)

Actual result: Merab Dvalishvili wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Casey Kenney at +150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Merab Dvalishvili has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Casey Kenney (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Casey Kenney

Red Corner

Merab Dvalishvili

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1406

Elo

1542

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Casey KenneyL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Louis Smolka · May 20

vs Heili Alateng · Oct 20

vs Nathaniel Wood · Oct 20

vs Dominick Cruz · Mar 21

vs Song Yadong · Aug 21

latest

Merab Dvalishvili

oldest →

vs Sean O'Malley · Sep 24

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Jan 25

SUBvs Sean O'Malley · Jun 25

vs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 25

vs Petr Yan · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Casey KenneyMetricMerab Dvalishvili

4.85

Strikes / min

4.42

4.67

Strikes absorbed / min

2.80

58%

Strike defense

54%

1.09

TDs / 15 min

5.97

61%

Takedown defense

76%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.18Δ 1.44 — meaningful gap+1.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Casey KenneyMerab Dvalishvili

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Casey Kenney(8 fights)Merab Dvalishvili(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -136.5|Blue +136.5

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -2.2|Blue +2.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -105.0|Blue +105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Casey KenneyTargetMerab Dvalishvili

By target zone

25% acc · 49%

Head

22% acc · 48%

59% acc · 22%

Body

61% acc · 22%

93% acc · 29%

Leg

90% acc · 30%

By position

38% acc · 93%

Distance

28% acc · 68%

50% acc · 7%

Clinch

88% acc · 11%

Ground

76% acc · 21%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Casey Kenney rounds

even

Merab Dvalishvili rounds

Round 1Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:02

19Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

1:11Control

Round 2Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

1:57Control

Round 3Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:03

20Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

2:34Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 118

Sig Strikes

63 / 181

36.7%

Sig Str %

34.7%

47 / 120

Total Strikes

114 / 241

0 / 0

TDs

12 / 24

—

TD %

53%

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

5:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Merab Dvalishvili	19 / 67	43 / 92	4 / 6
1	Casey Kenney	22 / 52	24 / 54	0 / 0
2	Merab Dvalishvili	24 / 65	33 / 75	4 / 11
2	Casey Kenney	16 / 45	16 / 45	0 / 0
3	Merab Dvalishvili	20 / 49	38 / 74	4 / 7
3	Casey Kenney	7 / 21	7 / 21	0 / 0

Casey Kenney

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights8

Merab Dvalishvili

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17