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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Matthew Semelsberger won · U-DEC

Elo1393

Elo1487

Carlton MinusvsMatthew SemelsbergerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edgar · Saturday, August 22, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Matthew Semelsberger won

U-DEC

Model Prediction: Matthew Semelsberger wins(51.8%)

Actual result: Matthew Semelsberger wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matthew Semelsberger at -106 American odds

+$94 profit

$194 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matthew Semelsberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Carlton Minus

Red Corner

Matthew Semelsberger

Blue Corner

-118

(54%)

Vegas Odds

-106

(51%)

1393

Elo

1487

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'10"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carlton Minus

oldest →

vs Christos Giagos · Dec 20

latest

Matthew SemelsbergerL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Matthews · Dec 22

vs Jeremiah Wells · Apr 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Jul 23

vs Preston Parsons · Jan 24

KOvs Charles Radtke · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carlton MinusMetricMatthew Semelsberger

3.50

Strikes / min

3.77

4.97

Strikes absorbed / min

4.24

50%

Strike defense

54%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.01

58%

Takedown defense

45%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.47evenly matched on net striking-0.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carlton MinusMatthew Semelsberger

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carlton Minus(2 fights)Matthew Semelsberger(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -94.4|Blue +94.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carlton MinusTargetMatthew Semelsberger

By target zone

37% acc · 79%

Head

42% acc · 67%

89% acc · 10%

Body

70% acc · 14%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

96% acc · 19%

By position

42% acc · 99%

Distance

107

49% acc · 91%

50% acc · 1%

Clinch

88% acc · 6%

0% acc

Ground

57% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carlton Minus rounds

even

Matthew Semelsberger rounds

Round 1Matthew Semelsberger edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

43Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Matthew Semelsberger edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:54Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Matthew Semelsberger edged it

Sig. strikes42

Takedowns0

Control0:00

46Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:44Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

77 / 182

Sig Strikes

118 / 233

41%

Sig Str %

49.7%

89 / 197

Total Strikes

122 / 237

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 2

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matthew Semelsberger	43 / 81	43 / 81	0 / 0	0
1	Carlton Minus	15 / 44	15 / 44	0 / 0	0
2	Matthew Semelsberger	29 / 65	31 / 67	0 / 0	1
2	Carlton Minus	20 / 45	28 / 56	0 / 0	0
3	Matthew Semelsberger	46 / 87	48 / 89	2 / 2	0
3	Carlton Minus	42 / 93	46 / 97	0 / 1	0

Carlton Minus

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights2

Matthew Semelsberger

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11