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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Carlston Harris won · U-DEC R3

Elo1476

Elo1495

Carlston HarrisvsJared GoodenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Saturday, March 11, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Carlston Harris won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCarlston Harris: Well-roundedvsJared Gooden: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Carlston Harris wins(59.2%)

Actual result: Carlston Harris wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carlston Harris at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Carlston Harris enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jared Gooden is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Carlston Harris has lost 75% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Carlston Harris

Red Corner

Jared Gooden

Blue Corner

-300

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1476

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

193.04 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carlston HarrisL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Feb 22

SUBvs Jeremiah Wells · Aug 23

KOvs Khaos Williams · May 24

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jan 25

DECvs Jake Matthews · May 26

latest

Jared Gooden

oldest →

vs Abubakar Nurmagomedov · Mar 21

KOvs Niklas Stolze · Jul 21

vs Randy Brown · Oct 21

SUBvs Wellington Turman · Dec 23

vs Chidi Njokuani · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carlston HarrisMetricJared Gooden

3.79

Strikes / min

4.40

3.46

Strikes absorbed / min

6.74

54%

Strike defense

45%

1.46

TDs / 15 min

0.91

55%

Takedown defense

65%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.33Δ 2.67 — meaningful gap-2.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carlston HarrisJared Gooden

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carlston Harris(8 fights)Jared Gooden(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -19.0|Blue +19.0

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -119.0|Blue +119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carlston HarrisTargetJared Gooden

By target zone

53% acc · 83%

Head

45% acc · 43%

100% acc · 16%

Body

78% acc · 41%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 16%

By position

47% acc · 56%

Distance

55% acc · 80%

73% acc · 17%

Clinch

100% acc · 20%

81% acc · 27%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carlston Harris rounds

even

Jared Gooden rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control0:13

44Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Carlston Harris edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control4:44

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Carlston Harris edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns4

Control4:41

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 110

Sig Strikes

51 / 84

67.3%

Sig Str %

56.3%

140 / 194

Total Strikes

93 / 126

5 / 12

TDs

0 / 0

33.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

9:38

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jared Gooden	44 / 71	53 / 80	0 / 0
1	Carlston Harris	43 / 84	44 / 85	0 / 2
2	Jared Gooden	4 / 6	28 / 30	0 / 0
2	Carlston Harris	7 / 10	47 / 54	1 / 2
3	Jared Gooden	3 / 7	12 / 16	0 / 0
3	Carlston Harris	13 / 16	49 / 55	4 / 8

Carlston Harris

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights8

Jared Gooden

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights7