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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Alex Perez won · SUB R2

Elo1363

Elo1498

Carls John De TomasvsAlex PerezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · Saturday, December 9, 2017Fresno, California, USA

Official fight result

Alex Perez won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:54

Model Prediction: Carls John De Tomas wins(59.9%)

Actual result: Alex Perez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carls John De Tomas at +335 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Perez has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Carls John De Tomas (53.5%).
Carls John De Tomas has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Carls John De Tomas

Red Corner

Alex Perez

Blue Corner

+335

(23%)

Vegas Odds

-420

(81%)

1363

Elo

1498

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'6"

180.34 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carls John De Tomas

oldest →

vs Naoki Inoue · Jun 17

latest

Alex Perez

oldest →

KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Apr 24

KOvs Tatsuro Taira · Jun 24

SUBvs Asu Almabayev · Nov 25

KOvs Charles Johnson · Jan 26

vs Sumudaerji · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carls John De TomasMetricAlex Perez

1.74

Strikes / min

4.41

3.93

Strikes absorbed / min

3.20

44%

Strike defense

59%

1.37

TDs / 15 min

2.21

66%

Takedown defense

75%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.19Δ 3.40 — meaningful gap+1.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carls John De TomasAlex Perez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carls John De Tomas(2 fights)Alex Perez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -135.4|Blue +135.4

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carls John De TomasTargetAlex Perez

By target zone

26% acc · 88%

Head

52% acc · 54%

Body

63% acc · 21%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

86% acc · 25%

By position

26% acc · 88%

Distance

43% acc · 38%

100% acc · 13%

Clinch

88% acc · 29%

Ground

73% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carls John De Tomas rounds

even

Alex Perez rounds

Round 1Alex Perez edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:54

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:11Control

Round 2Alex Perez edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:27Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 28

Sig Strikes

24 / 40

16%

Sig Str %

62%

9 / 29

Total Strikes

42 / 62

0 / 2

TDs

2 / 4

TD %

66.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:54

Ctrl Time

3:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alex Perez	15 / 27	17 / 29	1 / 3	2
1	Carls John De Tomas	8 / 25	9 / 26	0 / 2	0
2	Alex Perez	9 / 13	25 / 33	1 / 1	1
2	Carls John De Tomas	0 / 3	0 / 3	0 / 0	0

Carls John De Tomas

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights2

Alex Perez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights16