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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Carlos Vera won · SUB R1
Elo1506
Elo1475
Josias Musasa editorial illustration

Carlos VeravsJosias MusasaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Saturday, March 15, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Carlos Vera won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:16

Model Prediction: Josias Musasa wins(58.0%)

Actual result: Carlos Vera wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Josias Musasa at -770 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Carlos Vera threatens submissions; Josias Musasa has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Carlos Vera has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Josias Musasa has 56pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Josias Musasa (53.5%).
  • Josias Musasa has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Carlos Vera
Red Corner
VS
Josias Musasa
Blue Corner
+560
(15%)
Vegas Odds
-770
(89%)
1506
Elo
1475
38
Age
27
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'6"
Height
5'8"
175.26 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carlos Vera
oldest →
L
vs Rinya Nakamura · Feb 24
latest
Josias Musasa
oldest →
L
vs Colby Thicknesse · Sep 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carlos VeraMetricJosias Musasa
1.53
Strikes / min
3.19
2.79
Strikes absorbed / min
4.39
49%
Strike defense
36%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.90
25%
Takedown defense
81%
1.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.26evenly matched on net striking-1.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1485 vs 1500Strikes1.5 vs 3.2Takedowns0.0 vs 0.9Sub Atts1.60 vs 0.50Form-1.0 vs 0.0
Carlos VeraJosias Musasa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601475149015051520← oldermost recent →
Carlos Vera(2 fights)Josias Musasa(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +31.1|Blue -31.1
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carlos VeraTargetJosias Musasa

By target zone

3
30% acc · 19%
Head
3
23% acc · 23%
3
100% acc · 19%
Body
0
0% acc
10
91% acc · 63%
Leg
10
63% acc · 77%

By position

16
67% acc · 100%
Distance
13
42% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Carlos Vera rounds
0
even
0
Josias Musasa rounds
Round 1Carlos Vera edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:14
Knockdowns1
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:10Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
16 / 24
Sig Strikes
13 / 31
66%
Sig Str %
41%
18 / 26
Total Strikes
13 / 31
0 / 2
TDs
0 / 1
0%
TD %
0%
2
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:14
Ctrl Time
0:10

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Josias Musasa13 / 3113 / 310 / 10
1Carlos Vera16 / 2418 / 260 / 22

Carlos Vera

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights2

Josias Musasa

StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights2