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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Carlos Ulberg won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1573

Elo1470

Carlos UlbergvsTafon NchukwiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Saturday, June 25, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Carlos Ulberg won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:15

Style matchupCarlos Ulberg: Pressure fightervsTafon Nchukwi: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Carlos Ulberg wins(63.9%)

Actual result: Carlos Ulberg wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carlos Ulberg at +135 American odds

+$135 profit

$235 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Carlos Ulberg enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Carlos Ulberg is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Tafon Nchukwi has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Carlos Ulberg has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Carlos Ulberg

Red Corner

Tafon Nchukwi

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1573

Elo

1470

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'0"

195.58 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carlos UlbergW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alonzo Menifield · May 24

vs Volkan Oezdemir · Nov 24

vs Jan Blachowicz · Mar 25

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Sep 25

KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Apr 26

latest

Tafon NchukwiL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jamie Pickett · Dec 20

vs Junyong Park · May 21

vs Mike Rodriguez · Sep 21

KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Mar 22

vs AJ Dobson · Aug 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carlos UlbergMetricTafon Nchukwi

6.57

Strikes / min

5.57

4.03

Strikes absorbed / min

4.11

51%

Strike defense

54%

0.53

TDs / 15 min

0.76

85%

Takedown defense

64%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.54Δ 1.08 — meaningful gap+1.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carlos UlbergTafon Nchukwi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carlos Ulberg(10 fights)Tafon Nchukwi(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +102.6|Blue -102.6

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carlos UlbergTargetTafon Nchukwi

By target zone

69% acc · 60%

Head

100% acc · 20%

Body

100% acc · 20%

Leg

75% acc · 100%

By position

80% acc · 80%

Distance

75% acc · 100%

Clinch

75% acc · 20%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carlos Ulberg rounds

even

Tafon Nchukwi rounds

Round 1Carlos Ulberg edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 19

Sig Strikes

3 / 4

78%

Sig Str %

75%

15 / 19

Total Strikes

3 / 4

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tafon Nchukwi	3 / 4	3 / 4	0 / 0	0
1	Carlos Ulberg	15 / 19	15 / 19	0 / 0	0

Carlos Ulberg

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights10

Tafon Nchukwi

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights6