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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Carlos Ulberg won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1573

Elo1499

Carlos UlbergvsNicolae NegumereanuUFC Prediction Result

UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Saturday, November 12, 2022New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Carlos Ulberg won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:44

Style matchupCarlos Ulberg: Pressure fightervsNicolae Negumereanu: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Carlos Ulberg wins(57.4%)

Actual result: Carlos Ulberg wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carlos Ulberg at -135 American odds

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Carlos Ulberg enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Nicolae Negumereanu enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Carlos Ulberg is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Nicolae Negumereanu has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Carlos Ulberg has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Carlos Ulberg has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Carlos Ulberg

Red Corner

Nicolae Negumereanu

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1573

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'0"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carlos UlbergW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alonzo Menifield · May 24

vs Volkan Oezdemir · Nov 24

vs Jan Blachowicz · Mar 25

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Sep 25

KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Apr 26

latest

Nicolae NegumereanuW4 streak

oldest →

vs Saparbeg Safarov · Mar 19

vs Aleksa Camur · Jun 21

KOvs Ike Villanueva · Oct 21

vs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Mar 22

KOvs Ihor Potieria · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carlos UlbergMetricNicolae Negumereanu

6.57

Strikes / min

3.58

4.03

Strikes absorbed / min

5.56

51%

Strike defense

39%

0.53

TDs / 15 min

1.02

85%

Takedown defense

62%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.54Δ 4.52 — meaningful gap-1.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carlos UlbergNicolae Negumereanu

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carlos Ulberg(10 fights)Nicolae Negumereanu(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +73.5|Blue -73.5

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carlos UlbergTargetNicolae Negumereanu

By target zone

53% acc · 57%

Head

0% acc

100% acc · 14%

Body

25% acc · 50%

67% acc · 29%

Leg

33% acc · 50%

By position

60% acc · 86%

Distance

14% acc · 100%

Clinch

67% acc · 14%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carlos Ulberg rounds

even

Nicolae Negumereanu rounds

Round 1Carlos Ulberg edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 23

Sig Strikes

2 / 14

60%

Sig Str %

14%

14 / 23

Total Strikes

2 / 14

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nicolae Negumereanu	2 / 14	2 / 14	0 / 0	0
1	Carlos Ulberg	14 / 23	14 / 23	0 / 0	0

Carlos Ulberg

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights10

Nicolae Negumereanu

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights6