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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Carlos Ulberg won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1573

Elo1479

Carlos UlbergvsIhor PotieriaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · Saturday, May 13, 2023Charlotte, North Carolina, USA

Official fight result

Carlos Ulberg won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:09

Style matchupCarlos Ulberg: Pressure fightervsIhor Potieria: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Carlos Ulberg wins(70.0%)

Actual result: Carlos Ulberg wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carlos Ulberg at -490 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Carlos Ulberg enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Ihor Potieria enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Carlos Ulberg is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Ihor Potieria has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Carlos Ulberg has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ihor Potieria (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Carlos Ulberg

Red Corner

Ihor Potieria

Blue Corner

-490

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+380

(21%)

1573

Elo

1479

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'4"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carlos UlbergW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alonzo Menifield · May 24

vs Volkan Oezdemir · Nov 24

vs Jan Blachowicz · Mar 25

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Sep 25

KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Apr 26

latest

Ihor PotieriaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rodolfo Bellato · Dec 23

vs Robert Bryczek · Feb 24

SUBvs Michel Pereira · May 24

vs Cesar Almeida · Oct 24

KOvs Marco Tulio · Jan 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carlos UlbergMetricIhor Potieria

6.57

Strikes / min

4.44

4.03

Strikes absorbed / min

4.96

51%

Strike defense

50%

0.53

TDs / 15 min

0.73

85%

Takedown defense

66%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.54Δ 3.06 — meaningful gap-0.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carlos UlbergIhor Potieria

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carlos Ulberg(10 fights)Ihor Potieria(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +93.2|Blue -93.2

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carlos UlbergTargetIhor Potieria

By target zone

61% acc · 85%

Head

25% acc · 20%

100% acc · 8%

Body

50% acc · 8%

Leg

80% acc · 80%

By position

45% acc · 38%

Distance

56% acc · 100%

Clinch

80% acc · 62%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carlos Ulberg rounds

even

Ihor Potieria rounds

Round 1Carlos Ulberg edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:08

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 21

Sig Strikes

5 / 9

61%

Sig Str %

55%

13 / 21

Total Strikes

5 / 9

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ihor Potieria	5 / 9	5 / 9	0 / 1	0
1	Carlos Ulberg	13 / 21	13 / 21	0 / 0	0

Carlos Ulberg

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights10

Ihor Potieria

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8