← All fights/Event page

Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Carlos Ulberg won · U-DEC R3

Elo1573

Elo1417

Carlos UlbergvsFabio CherantUFC Prediction Result

UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Saturday, February 12, 2022Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Carlos Ulberg won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Carlos Ulberg wins(67.4%)

Actual result: Carlos Ulberg wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carlos Ulberg at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Carlos Ulberg enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Carlos Ulberg has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Carlos Ulberg has 85pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Fabio Cherant (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Carlos Ulberg

Red Corner

Fabio Cherant

Blue Corner

-265

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+215

(32%)

1573

Elo

1417

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'4"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carlos UlbergW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alonzo Menifield · May 24

vs Volkan Oezdemir · Nov 24

vs Jan Blachowicz · Mar 25

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Sep 25

KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Apr 26

latest

Fabio CherantL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Alonzo Menifield · Mar 21

KOvs William Knight · Aug 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carlos UlbergMetricFabio Cherant

6.57

Strikes / min

1.35

4.03

Strikes absorbed / min

4.89

51%

Strike defense

38%

0.53

TDs / 15 min

0.00

85%

Takedown defense

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.54Δ 6.08 — meaningful gap-3.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carlos UlbergFabio Cherant

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carlos Ulberg(10 fights)Fabio Cherant(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +155.7|Blue -155.7

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +168.0|Blue -168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carlos UlbergTargetFabio Cherant

By target zone

38% acc · 38%

Head

23% acc · 54%

79% acc · 23%

Body

60% acc · 46%

96% acc · 39%

Leg

0% acc

By position

59% acc · 100%

Distance

32% acc · 100%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carlos Ulberg rounds

even

Fabio Cherant rounds

Round 1Carlos Ulberg edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control0:31

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 2Carlos Ulberg edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Carlos Ulberg edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control0:44

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

66 / 112

Sig Strikes

13 / 41

58%

Sig Str %

30%

71 / 117

Total Strikes

13 / 41

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:15

Ctrl Time

0:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Fabio Cherant	4 / 15	4 / 15	0 / 0
1	Carlos Ulberg	19 / 33	22 / 36	1 / 1
2	Fabio Cherant	7 / 15	7 / 15	0 / 0
2	Carlos Ulberg	27 / 41	27 / 41	0 / 0
3	Fabio Cherant	2 / 11	2 / 11	0 / 0
3	Carlos Ulberg	20 / 38	22 / 40	1 / 1

Carlos Ulberg

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights10

Fabio Cherant

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3